Ask The Experts: Chris Towers (CBS Sports)
Chris Towers (CBS Sports) dishes his thoughts on pitchers Roki Sasaki, Grayson Rodriguez, Bryan Woo, Jackson Jobe, Corbin Burnes and more.
We’ve recruited a star-studded lineup of fantasy analysts for the remainder of The Buzz’s ongoing positional preview series to tackle pivotal questions at each position group that include their draft strategy tips, insights on top prospects and favorite sleeper candidates, arming savvy fantasy managers with the insider knowledge required to dominate their leagues.
Chris Towers is a writer, podcaster and editor for CBS Sports. You’ve seen his work on the Fantasy Baseball Today Newsletter and extremely popular Fantasy Baseball Today Podcast. I’ve known Chris for nearly a decade at this point and he’s always been one of a handful of fantasy analysts that make me constantly question my own logic and process in a positive way. I couldn’t think of anyone better suited to tackle the tough questions facing fantasy managers as they stare down the starting pitcher landscape.
What are your reasonable expectations for Roki Sasaki from a fantasy standpoint?
I’m probably lower than most on Roki Sasaki, ranking him as my SP34 and 110th player overall. It’s not that I doubt the talent, really, at least not in the long term. But we’re talking about a near top-75 price for a guy who has never pitched in the majors, dealt with a significant drop in velocity in 2024, and has made just 33 starts over the past two seasons.
If he’s out there in spring training sitting 98-99 mph, I may soften my skepticism a bit. But even then, he’s almost certainly going to be in a six-man rotation all season and has never thrown even 130 innings in a season, so I just question how much upside there really is here. There is some precedent for a pitcher being an elite fantasy option in fewer than 140 innings – Paul Skenes was top-five last year in 133 and Tyler Glasnow was 20th in 134! – but the margin for error is just so slim here when Sasaki is already SP20 in ADP. A 2024 Glasnow outcome would be a really good one for a pitcher with no major-league experience, and I’m expecting something more like what Kodai Senga did in 2023 with about 30 fewer innings. Senga was SP24 that year, by the way.
Who is your favorite breakout starting pitcher for 2025?
I like drafting Grayson Rodriguez a lot as someone who probably has more ace upside than he’s being given credit for after a couple of mildly disappointing seasons. But I think my favorite is probably Bryan Woo. Injury concerns are going to keep his price reasonable enough that I don’t think there’s that much downside here. And, armed as he is with two legitimately elite fastballs (and a home park that will only continue to help), I think Woo has a high performance floor, with room for a George Kirby-esque outcome if he stays on the mound.
Which starting pitcher is your favorite early-round anchor from a value standpoint based on ADP to build a pitching staff around?
It’s gotta be Zack Wheeler or Corbin Burnes. I don’t know if either has the upside of the Tarik Skubals or Paul Skeneses (Skenii?) of the world, but it’s hard to see how things go truly poorly for either one of them. They’ve shown they can handle the multi-season ace workload, and both are certainly capable of those stretches where they absolutely carry your rotation – and I’m bullish on Burnes after he rediscovered his cutter last September.
Who is your favorite top pitching prospect that you think will make the most significant fantasy impact for 2025?
Presumably, we’re not including Roki Sasaki in this conversation, so it probably has to be Jackson Jobe. Andrew Painter isn’t going to be up until June or July, in all likelihood, so while I think he might be more talented than Job, I’ll give Jobe the edge.
But I do want to mention one guy I think is being really overlooked, and that is Quinn Mathews of the Cardinals. He’s one of the rare young pitchers who has actually proven he can handle an ace workload, and he managed to add 3-4 mph to his four-seamer after turning pro, going from a fourth-round pick to a potential ace. He struck out 28 more batters than anyone else in the minors, and though there was a slight bump in the road when he got to Triple-A, I still think we’ll see him very early on in 2025, and he has a chance to be a real impact arm.
Which starting pitchers are you going to be monitoring closely during spring training and what are you looking for specifically?
I think Corbin Burnes’ cutter is a big one – if he’s generating the same lateral movement he did at the end of last season, he’s going to surprise people with his strikeout rate in 2025. He probably won’t get back to 30 percent, but high-20s might be more viable than you think.
I’ll also be keeping an eye on Roki Sasaki’s velocity, as mentioned earlier, and Shane McClanahan is a key one to watch as well. He’s coming back from his second Tommy John surgery and only really has the 2022 season to hang his hat on as an elite pitcher. I’m really worried he could be this year’s Walker Buehler.