Ask The Experts: Sara Sanchez

Sara Sanchez (BaseballHQ & Bleed Cubbie Blue) tackles a series of hard-hitting questions about the keystone for next season.

We’ve recruited a star-studded lineup of fantasy analysts for the remainder of The Buzz’s positional preview series to tackle pivotal questions at each position group, share their draft strategy tips, dish their insights on top prospects and divulge their favorite sleeper candidates, arming savvy fantasy managers with the insider knowledge required to dominate their respective leagues.

Leading off the series is one of my favorite voices in the fantasy baseball universe, period. Sara Sanchez is a baseball analyst who divides her time between her love of the Cubs and fantasy baseball. She’s written for FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and currently co-hosts the Fantasy Feud podcast on Pitcher List. You can find her writing at BaseballHQ and Bleed Cubbie Blue. She’s powered by nitro cold brew, rosé, and the vibes in the left field bleachers at Wrigley Field.

What are realistic power-speed combo expectations for Matt McLain in 2025?

Sara Sanchez: When Matt McLain has been on the field, he’s been exceptional. During his debut season in 2023 he slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 403 plate appearances. But the problem for McLain isn’t the skills or tools, it’s the injury risk. A healthy McLain who racks up 600-plus plate appearances is projected for 25 home runs and 18 stolen bases according to Steamer – and there has never been a year where McLain has accumulated that many plate appearances in a season (his high is 583 across Triple-A and MLB in 2023). He played in the Arizona Fall League and slashed .240/.356/.520 across 50 at bats, which were likely more important for him getting his groove back than an indicator of his talent level. If he’s healthy, he’s an everyday player and a 20-20 threat, draft accordingly.

How close is Jackson Holliday to putting it together at the highest level? Where would you rank him at the position?

Sara Sanchez: I spent an absurd amount of time thinking about this question and after all of that the answer is: I don’t know, but I’ll tell you what I was thinking about and maybe that will help you answer this question. I think scouts are good at their jobs and you aren’t the No. 1 overall draft pick and No. 1 prospect in baseball by accident. Those are the types of players who figure it out after their abbreviated first look at the league and you should obviously have this guy higher than Luis Rengifo (more about him below). The thing is, I cannot find anything in Holliday’s statistical profile to indicate something clicked in the second half or in August or in September. I see a hitter who had a rough start to his big-league career, came back and is in danger of being platooned. Could he struggle for another month and lock in a la Aaron Judge in 2017? Yes. He absolutely could do that. This is the pedigree of a kid who does that. And you can draft him at pick 216, which could be the league winner we are all talking about at this time in December 2025. But I want to be very clear, there is nothing right now that I see in the stats to support that. I see a kid the Orioles believe is a star and a kid who wants to be a star. And, honestly, it could be a lot worse than a bright scouting team like the Orioles wanting you to be a star. That said, I still have Jackson Holliday ranked just below Luis Rengifo.

Does Luis García Jr. build on last year’s offensive breakthrough?

Sara Sanchez: It’s easy to forget how young Luis García Jr. still is, he’ll be 24 on Opening Day in 2025 and won’t celebrate his 25th birthday until May 16th, but he already has 1773 MLB plate appearances under his belt. Both his age and experience are reasons to trust his breakout season in 2024 that saw him hit .282/.318/.444 with 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases off 528 plate appearances. To put it slightly differently, we saw García do a lot of the work that many other players were doing in Double-A or Triple-A. The result has been a career .270/.302/.410 triple-slash line with a 4.6% walk rate and a 17.0% K rate. Admittedly, I’d love to see more walks, but a glance at his Statcast page indicates that what we saw from García last season was a batter who had struggled with off-speed pitches in prior seasons catching up to those pitches more in 2024 – and in a way that aligns with his expected batting averages according to Statcast. García hit just .154 off an xBA of .202 in 2023 but improved that to .318 with an xBA of .306 in 2024 – even better than his .301/.304 off fastballs last season. García should build on his 2024 improvements and benefit from an improved Nationals team around him, although that likely pushes him down the batting order a bit.

Which speedster do you prefer: Luis Rengifo or Brice Turang?

Sara Sanchez: Brice Turang. His glove should keep him in the lineup, and he benefits from a stronger crew around him in Milwaukee (pun only slightly intended). He’s also two years younger than Luis Rengifo and speed has been a more consistent part of his game. Finally, Turang’s breakout looks like his bat adapting to the league, he hit .286/.360/.412 with a .318 BABIP and a 15.9 percent strikeout rate in his last full season in Triple-A compared to a .254/.316/.349 slash with a .300 BABIP and a 17.0 percent strikeout rate in 2024. As much as I enjoyed Rengifo’s breakout 2024 season, it was built on the back of a career-high .339 BABIP, fully 39 points higher than his previous career mark of .300 in his rookie campaign.

Who is your favorite late-round target at the keystone?

Sara Sanchez: Twist my arm and make me talk about Christopher Morel, who will retain second-base eligibility in 2025 (along with third base and outfield eligibility in most leagues). Morel is currently being drafted at pick 289 overall, on average, in 15-team leagues on the NFBC. He’s got loud tools that haven’t all come together just yet in a big-league season, like an elite bat speed that ranks 11th in baseball between Gunnar Henderson and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s easy to squint and see a breakout on the horizon. He hit 21 home runs in 2024 and 26 in 2023. He also improved his walk rate and strikeout rates last season. Finally, his season really cratered at the Trop in 2024, but he won’t be playing there at all this season as the Rays move to Steinbrenner Park for their home games in 2025.

How much of an impact does top prospect Kristian Campbell make next season?

Sara Sanchez: This is entirely dependent on the moves the Red Sox make with the rest of their offseason. Earlier this week manager Alex Cora was quoted pining for a “right-handed second baseman” to join the big-league team. Kristian Campbell certainly fits that bill as well as anyone in the Red Sox system, especially after hitting 20 home runs and stealing 24 bases across three levels of the minors last season, including 86 plate appearances at Triple-A where he slashed .286/.412/.486 with a 15.3 percent walk rate and a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. As the Red Sox roster is currently built, Campbell would just need to play his way past a David Hamilton/Nick Sogard platoon that also includes a sprinkle of Vaughn Grissom. However, there are still free agents who could change that calculation.