Bellinger Ready To Rake In Big Apple
How much will Cody Bellinger benefit fantasy-wise by trading Wrigley Field for Yankee Stadium?
The shockwaves from Juan Soto’s landmark contract with the Mets continued reverberating on Tuesday evening as the Yankees’ offseason flurry – which includes signing ace Max Fried and swinging a deal for star closer Devin Williams within the past week – continued with the club finalizing a trade with the Cubs for slugger Cody Bellinger.
How much does Cody Bellinger benefit from Yankee Stadium?
Here’s an oversimplification: It’s probably unrealistic to forecast Bellinger to reach the 30-homer plateau next season, but a return to the mid-20’s in the round-tripper department seems like a virtual lock at Yankee Stadium, which ranks third out of 30 ballparks over the past three seasons for left-handed home run power in Baseball Savant’s park factors. The dramatic shift from Wrigley Field’s power-suppressing environment for left-handed pop, which ranks seventh worst (23rd overall) in Baseball Savant’s park factors during that same three-year span, to a veritable hitter’s paradise in New York is a massive deal from a fantasy standpoint. A quick glance at Bellinger’s splits last year reflects that as he batted .282 with a robust .797 OPS on the road last season, as opposed to hitting just .247 with a pedestrian .700 OPS in home contests. Leaving Wrigley Field was always going to be a big deal for Bellinger, but he’s going to an ideal landing spot.
The move to New York as a key component of a star-studded lineup that also includes Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe and top prospect Jasson Domínguez – who is essentially locked into left field heading into next season – makes him a realistic rebound candidate for fantasy purposes after struggling last season with the Cubs to an underwhelming .266/.325/.426 triple-slash line with 18 round-trippers and nine steals in 569 plate appearances on the heels of a remarkable 26-homer, 20-steal effort the prior year in his Chicago debut. It’s worth noting that injuries may have played a significant role in his offensive struggles last year as he suffered a pair of fractured ribs in late April before fracturing his left middle finger in early July when he was hit by a pitch.
Swapping Wrigley Field for Yankee Stadium allows fantasy managers to bake in an uptick in over-the-fence pop for Bellinger next season, which puts him somewhere in the 25-homer range, while also chipping in double-digit stolen bases. The 29-year-old center fielder is currently being selected just outside the top 100 picks (124th overall), on average, in early NFBC drafts, which puts him just outside the top 10 at the position. He’ll jump up a few spots into the top 10 at the cold corner following the trade as it seems logical to take him over both Vinnie Pasquantino and Spencer Steer. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable bumping Bellinger up into the Triston Casas and Christian Walker range at the position, which puts him close to a top 100 overall ranking for re-draft purposes.