Burger Flipped At Winter Meetings
Is Jake Burger a legitimate 40-homer threat in Texas?
With the Winter Meetings drawing to a close, the Rangers came out of nowhere on Tuesday evening to swing the offseason's most surprising and consequential trade so far, acquiring slugging corner infielder Jake Burger from the Rangers for a trio of prospects. The soon-to-be 29-year-old masher fell just shy of his second consecutive 30-homer campaign last year, and has turned in near-carbon copy seasons the last two seasons between the White Sox and Marlins, batting .250/.305/.488 with 63 round-trippers and 156 RBI in 1,119 plate appearances during that span.
It's undeniable that Burger is pretty much entrenched as a one-dimensional, power and counting stats fantasy contributor, which makes it nearly impossible for fantasy managers to envision him making another leap into an upper-echelon performer. He doesn't walk a ton and is going to strike out nearly 30 percent of the time, which puts a ceiling on his batting average upside. The big question for fantasy managers is whether he'll hit for even more over-the-fence power by relocating from an extremely pitcher-friendly environment at loanDepot park to a veritable hitter's paradise in Globe Life Field, which Statcast data ranks as the fourth-best park for right-handed home run power over the last three years. It's probably a stretch for fantasy managers to anticipate a significant boost in the over-the-fence power department, but it feels safe to lock in a 30-homer baseline moving forward, with the potential to get close to eclipsing the lofty 40-homer plateau. It also goes without saying that the Rangers' lineup is a massive upgrade from a supporting cast standpoint, which should help boost his runs scored and RBI totals as well.
Here's an oversimplification: Burger's move to a more talented lineup in a much friendlier offensive environment might be enough to transform Burger into a near-elite fantasy option at first base. The lack of batting average upside will prevent him from challenging the top six at the position, but first base is an uncertain wasteland outside of the top half-dozen certifiable elite options at the position, which include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson Pete Alonso and Josh Naylor. Once fantasy managers traverse beyond those stalwarts, there are plenty of questions marks. Youngsters like Vinnie Pasquantino and Triston Casas have shown potential, but are hardly sure things after struggling to stay healthy. It would be foolish to overlook the durability concerns with aging sluggers like Salvador Perez and Christian Walker as well. We stopped trying to forecast Cody Bellinger years ago and Spencer Steer doesn't feel like he's going to hit for enough power to make another leap.
All of that uncertainty paves a wide lane for Burger to make the leap into near-elite territory, especially if he's threatening the 40-homer threshold with a respectable batting average and strong counting stats. He's currently the 13th first baseman off the board (127th overall) in early NFBC average draft position data, but there's only a 20-pick gap between him and Christian Walker, who is currently ninth at the position. It might be a stretch to pencil Burger in for 40 homers next season, but the move out of Miami and to Texas makes him a much more appealing fantasy option for 2025 and beyond.
Meanwhile, the trade has a significant ripple effect for the Marlins as it essentially clears a tractor trailer-sized lane for prospect Deyvison De Los Santos to make the club's season-opening roster, most likely at designated hitter. The 21-year-old emerging slugger, who was acquired from the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline in exchange for reliever A.J. Puk, batted .294/.343/.571 with 40 homers in 583 plate appearances last year between Double-A and Triple-A. Those statistics were compiled in extremely hitter-friendly environments and it remains to be seen whether he'll make enough contact to survive at the highest level. That uncertainty is what put him as the 61st-best prospect (238th overall) in my latest Top 500 Dynasty Rankings update for Rotoworld. Basically, we need to see it with De Los Santos in the big leagues before we can get more aggressive with forecasting his long-term future.