Corbin Burnes dazzles in Arizona debut
Corbin Burnes' signature cutter from last September was back on display during his spring training debut.
With spring training contests getting underway on Friday, there’s an avalanche of accompanying information that makes it extremely challenging for fantasy managers to decipher signal from noise. The overwhelming majority of spring training data overload wind up being completely useless, narrative-driven spin that doesn’t wind up having any tangible impact. Is experimenting with a new pitch or swing adjustment the modern-era equivalent to the historical example of a veteran player showing up to camp in best shape of his life? Not quite, but we need to pay close attention to these variable in actual spring training contests.
I’m unwilling willing to dismiss the possibility entirely out of hand that a brand-new pitch or swing adjustment helps a player unlock their potential, especially for a younger player, but we need to see it in game action over a sustained period before we’re willing to completely overhaul our pre-season statistical forecast. Injuries, pitch velocity (later in spring), lineup spots, position battles and prospects generating momentum are the key variables that fantasy managers should monitor closely in Grapefruit and Cactus League action. Over the next few weeks, I’ll focus on breaking down an individual player (or two) whose spring training performance meets that specific set of criteria. I can’t think of a better way to kick off the series than taking a deeper dive into veteran fantasy ace Corbin Burnes’ highly anticipated Diamondbacks debut after signing a six-year, $210 million contract back in late December.
Corbin Burnes, SP, Diamondbacks
Friday vs. Rockies: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Burnes spoke extensively at the end of last season about how he finally managed to fix his signature cutter, which helped transform him into one of the most impactful starting pitchers in the entire fantasy landscape as he compiled a stellar 2.88 ERA (3.01 FIP), 1.02 WHIP and 29 percent strikeout rate across 816 2/3 innings (134 starts) between the Brewers and Orioles since the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
The 30-year-old right-hander “fixed” his trademark cutter last September by adding a couple inches of additional horizontal break to the offering, which led to a surge in whiffs (27.7 percent strikeout rate) over his final five outings. The positive news for fantasy managers is that Burnes’ vintage cutter showed up on Friday during his Arizona debut when he struck out the side against the Rockies. Not only was his average velocity on the offering back into the desired low-to-mid 90’s range, but the horizontal and vertical movements on the six cutters he threw during his lone inning of work were back within the similar bands to what he was doing last September.
It’s an extremely encouraging development to see the noticeable changes Burnes made late last year showing up in the early stages of his Arizona debut. That was the biggest variable that fantasy managers needed to see show up in spring start to truly cement his status as an elite option for fantasy purposes. I’ve locked Burnes into the sixth spot in my starting pitcher rankings, trailing only Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Logan Gilbert and Zack Wheeler now. We’ll need to see it over a bigger sample size than just six cutters, but Burnes appears to be back to the elite-level starter we witnessed for nearly a half-decade, and he appears poised to dominate the NL West in his Diamondbacks debut.