Early ADP Analysis - Second Base

Dave Shovein takes a deep dive into early NFBC average draft position data to give fantasy managers an overview of the landscape heading into next season.

Even for the most casual fantasy drafters, entering a draft without any type of plan at all is a sure recipe for disaster. One of the most important tools at the disposal of any fantasy manager is average draft position. It’s the data that gives everyone insight into the going rate for each player in fantasy drafts.

ADP isn’t a static tool though, it evolves over time. It will show us trends, whether a player is moving up or down in the rankings. It also gives us insight into the maximum and minimum picks made for every player. Using this data should be absolutely critical in developing your plan of attack for your next fantasy draft.

Every Tuesday in this series I’ll take an early look at how ADP is shaping up at each position. I’ll attempt to highlight where the tiers fall at each position, areas of the draft that you may want to target the position and players that I may be avoiding at their current draft cost.

If you haven’t checked it out yet, be sure to read through the first entry in this series — the catcher preview that was posted a couple of weeks ago and the first base preview that was released last week.

Full disclosure, nearly all of my fantasy endeavors are done at the NFBC where both their 12-team and 15-team formats utilize rosters that start 23 players (14 hitters, 9 pitchers). That includes two catchers. The analysis will be viewed primarily through that lens but there should be plenty of insights that can be taken away to other formats as well.

On to the second base position!

Here’s a look at how ADP is shaping up at the position as of now. For this exercise, I’m looking at the data from NFBC Draft Champions leagues (15-team, 50 rounds) from the last two weeks. As we get closer to the season and drafts become more prevalent, I’ll start to shrink that window a bit to make sure we’re looking at the most accurate and up-to-date information.

This time I went a bit deeper and included the top 55 options at the position, as there’s a player after the top 40 that I have interest in at the moment. As we progress throughout the off-season, I’ll likely dive even deeper than that in an attempt to uncover some late-round gems.

The first thing that jumps out to me when looking at the current market values is that there aren’t really any clearly defined cliffs like we saw at the catcher and first base positions. The top three options by ADP have distanced themselves a bit from the pack, but otherwise it’s a pretty gradual slide down throughout the ranks.

In terms of my own personal plan on how to attack the position, it’s notable that my second ranked player at the position (Matt McLain) checks in sixth when we look at ADP. That should lead to a strong buying opportunity. His current ADP sits at pick 111 overall with a minimum pick of 86.

It’ll all depend on how the other positions ultimately fit into the overall draft plan and what we are looking for in particular rounds, but I’d be more than comfortable jumping his minimum pick. Once again, assuming we are picking right in the middle of the draft at pick eight, I’d be targeting McLain with my sixth round selection (pick 83).

He’s the type of player that could easily soar up draft boards though once fantasy managers see him healthy and showcasing his dynamic skillset in spring training games, so it may even require a fifth-round selection (pick 68) to get the job done. He’s still a value there for us, but a lot of that excess profit that we were targeting would be gone in that instance.

If we miss on McLain in the sixth round though, what’s the plan after that? Great question, let’s take a look at the list. While the Reds second baseman stands out as the most obvious value at the top of the board, there are a few other intriguing options as well.

Jose Altuve actually grades out as the top player on my board at the second base position, while checking in third according to ADP. While McLain will probably be the top target, there are scenarios where I would grab Altuve first instead, especially if I can let him fall a bit and get him anywhere near is ADP (60.6). He has gone as high as pick 44 and as late as pick 75, so it’s a wide range at the moment. If we’re assuming that middle draft position, I don’t think I would jump him higher than ADP, but he’d be an option for me in the fifth round at pick 68.

If we get through six rounds and have missed on both Altuve and McLain, there’s no need to panic, as there are plenty of value options scattered among the ranks of the second base position. What I’m unclear on at the moment though, is how the shortstop position is going to shake out as a whole – and in turn whether my primary targets for the middle infield spot will come from this pool of players or from the shortstops.

Marcus Semien I like at cost, but probably wouldn’t climb up the ladder to get him. Andrés Giménez looks like a strong option to me at his current cost (ADP 179.0), as he’s the eighth ranked player on by board but 11th by ADP. He has gone as high as pick 145 and as late as pick 206. If I had whiffed on each of my top two targets, I’d probably be looking for Gimenez somewhere between his min pick and his ADP – making him an option for me in the 10th (143), 11th (158) or 12th (173) rounds, depending on what other positions I had planned to target in that area of the draft.

If we miss on Gimenez as well, the next target is one of my favorite overall options at the position in Brandon Lowe. He’s currently the 20th player off the board at the position by ADP but is ranked 12th on my list. We have seen some absolutely monster performances from Lowe in the past and as long as he’s able to avoid the injured list in 2025 he’ll once again deliver significant profit from his current draft spot (244.58). He has gone as high as pick 202 and as late as pick 316.

How and when I will target Lowe will depend on whether or not I was successful in landing any of McLain, Altuve or Gimenez. If I still don’t have a second baseman, we’ll obviously push Lowe up to fill that spot. If he’s only a middle infield option for me, I’d probably try to get him closer to his actual cost, depending on how many other MI options I liked and what type of fallback options were available.

If we missed on the first three targets, I’d be looking at Lowe in either the 13th (188) or 14th rounds (203). If we already had the position filled and wanted him as a middle infielder, it would be the 15th (218) or 16th (233) rounds most likely.

If we ended up going really heavy on the middle infield as a whole and landed both Altuve and McLain, or McLain and Gimenez, I’d still have interest in Lowe as a potential UTIL option, though that would be pushed down even further to the 17th (248) or 18th (263) rounds if he happened to fall.

Another wrinkle to consider here is that McLain is also eligible at shortstop, so if there are plenty of targets I like at the second base position, I shouldn’t worry about grabbing multiples of them as McLain could slide over and cover the shortstop position instead.

At a glance, it feels like those five guys will be my primary targets at the position. I’m much lower than the field on Ketel Marte and Ozzie Albies, so it’s unlikely that I wind up with any shares of either. The same can be said for Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday and Luis Arraez.

Conversely, while not as great of values, I appear to be higher than the market on Semien, Gleyber Torres. Jonathan India and Thairo Estrada, so they could turn into late second base or middle infield targets for me as well depending on how the draft – and my analysis of other positions – ultimately plays out.

The other option way down the list that I have interest in is Hyeseong Kim. His posting window ends next week, so we should get some clarity soon on where he’ll be playing if he ultimately makes the jump to the big leagues – and what type of playing time outlook he’ll have. If he lands a starting gig someplace, his batting average and speed profile would definitely play at his current cost (547.12).

Remember, this is just the draft plan as of now, at current draft prices. Things are going to shift up and down as we progress closer to our big drafts in March and we’ll continue to monitor and update the draft plan as we go. Things also could change as we progress through other positions and find different pockets of value at different positions.

Hopefully at some point in my ramblings here you were able to at least glean some valuable information that you can take with you when attempting to craft your draft plan for the upcoming season. If you perform the same types of exercises at every position, know the player pool forward and backwards and know in which pockets of the draft you’re more likely to target each position, then you’re already a few steps ahead of the competition and well on your way to competing for a league title.