Is Caleb Durbin Ready To Roll?

How much of a fantasy impact will Caleb Durbin make next season in Milwaukee?

With the Winter Meetings in the rear-view mirror, the Yankees continued their roster overhaul on Friday afternoon, acquiring star closer Devin Williams from the Brewers in exchange for second base prospect Caleb Durbin and left-hander Nestor Cortes. Heading to New York doesn’t significantly alter things for Williams from a pure fantasy standpoint, but the swap is an intriguing one for Durbin as the move to Milwaukee creates a clearer long-term path for him to make a sustained fantasy impact as a versatile multi-positional speedster.

Does anything change for Devin Williams in New York?

It’s a tough break for fantasy managers hoping to see late-season darling Luke Weaver run away with the closing role, but Williams represents a massive upgrade for the Yankees in the ninth inning after Clay Homes converted just 30 of 43 save opportunities last year in Pinstripes. The move to Yankee Stadium, which ranks third out of 30 ballparks over the past three seasons home run power, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors, isn’t the most exciting development for a closer with very little margin in high-leverage spots. However, it doesn’t change much for Williams from a projection standpoint since he’s been masterful at keeping the ball in the yard over the last half-decade at another extreme hitter’s paradise in Milwaukee’s American Family Field, which checked in sixth out of 30 parks in the same department.

The Airbender missed nearly four months at the outset of last season recovering from stress fractures in his back, but came back in late July to convert 14 of 15 save chances and finish with a microscopic 1.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 38/11 K/BB ratio across 21 2/3 innings (22 appearances). The 30-year-old stopper, who won’t reach free agency until 2026, has been the model of consistency over the last half-decade, registering a sparkling 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 375/112 K/BB ratio across 235 2/3 innings (241 appearances). Williams checked in fifth among relief pitchers (145th overall) in my latest Top 500 Dynasty Rankings for Rotoworld and would’ve been much higher had it not been for last year’s back issues, which inject some uncertainty into his long-term forecast. He’s right there with Emmanuel Clase and Josh Hader atop the relief pitcher rankings from a re-draft standpoint heading into next spring, especially after the move to a serious playoff contender in New York.

How much of a fantasy impact will Caleb Durbin make in Milwaukee?

Durbin’s inclusion as the centerpiece of a high-profile trade signals that Milwaukee believes he’s on the precipice of contributing at the highest level either as an everyday second baseman or a versatile super-utility specialist. The 24-year-old speedster registered a strong .275/.388/.451 triple-slash line with 10 homers and 31 thefts, while also logging time at five different defensive spots, across three minor-league levels in New York’s system prior to establishing a new Arizona Fall League record with a staggering 29 stolen bases in just 24 contests on the fall circuit. From a raw projection standpoint, Durbin doesn’t offer much in terms of over-the-fence pop, but that shouldn’t be an obstacle to his emergence as a viable fantasy contributor, especially in deeper mixed leagues, since he blends borderline elite bat-to-ball skills — striking out just 111 times (9.1 percent) in 1,216 minor-league plate appearances over the last four seasons — with above-average speed. There’s a wide range of potential outcomes in the batting average department, but its’ easy to envision him reaching double-digit homers with at least 30 steals in an everyday role.

Here's where it gets interesting. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters earlier this month at the annual Winter Meetings that Durbin was the current odds-on favorite to be their starting second baseman next season. However, there was always the lingering possibility that New York would re-sign Gleyber Torres or bring in some additional competition to push him in spring training. That variable was probably going to keep Durbin off mixed-league radar screens initially, but there are very few roadblocks standing in his way with the Brewers, especially if they have Brice Turang shift back over to replace Willy Adames at shortstop following his departure to San Francisco. The big question is whether a Turang and Durbin double-play combination is preferable to keeping Turang at the keystone and handing shortstop over to Joey Ortiz with Oliver Dunn at the hot corner. It’ll be a position battle fantasy managers should keep a close eye on at the outset of Cactus League action in Arizona. Durbin grabbed the 498th spot in my latest Top 500 Dynasty Rankings for Rotoworld earlier this month and is going to jump up considerably in the next update. With a clearer path to an everyday role with the Brewers, and second base being one of the most shallow in the fantasy landscape, he’s probably going to rise into the 300-range in the neighborhood of David Hamilton, Ronny Mauricio and Christopher Morel. There’s definitely a buying opportunity for dynasty managers heading into spring training.