Is Paul Goldschmidt Ready to Rebound?
George Bissell breaks down the fantasy ramifications from a flurry of recent moves at the cold corner including the Yankees signing Paul Goldschmidt and Cleveland shipping Josh Naylor to Arizona.
The fantasy landscape at the cold corner underwent a dramatic transformation over the weekend, thanks to a flurry of pre-holiday moves that included veteran Paul Goldschmidt agreeing to a one-year, $12.5 million pact with the Yankees shortly before Cleveland re-shaped its first base situation by shipping fantasy stalwart Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and bringing back Carlos Santana on a one-year, $12 million deal. We’ll get to Cleveland’s unexpected overhaul in a moment, and its impact on young sluggers like Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel, but let’s start with why fantasy managers should expect Goldschmidt to rebound in New York.
Will Paul Goldschmidt Rebound in New York?
Probably. The case for Goldschmidt putting together a bounce-back season in his Yankees debut is straightforward: He still makes a ton of hard contact.
The 37-year-old’s surface stats declined virtually across the board last season from a fantasy perspective as he batted .245/.302/.414 with 70 runs scored, 22 homers, 65 RBI and 11 steals across 654 plate appearances for the Cardinals. Despite those underwhelming numbers, his quality of contact metrics remained firmly intact last year with his 49.6 percent hard-hit rate ranking 21st out of 251 qualified hitters, according to Baseball Savant data. There wasn't massive erosion from a raw skills standpoint or lingering physical issue that sapped his power. If you believe his expected stats (average exit velocity, hard hit percentage and barrel percentage), they all point towards a rebound at the plate, especially when you factor in Yankee Stadium’s extremely hitter-friendly environment, which ranks 2nd out of 30 ballparks in Baseball Savant’s park factors for right-handed home run power over the past three seasons. The fact that he’s still making hard contact at near-elite rates, and capable of reaching double-digit stolen bases, are strong indications that he’s not breaking down physically.
It's entirely fair to acknowledge that Goldschmidt’s advanced age is a legitimate reason for concern since it amplifies the risk that things could fall apart at a moment’s notice. Fantasy managers that firmly believe in rolling the dice on younger alternatives like Christian Walker — whose move to Houston we covered earlier this week — Triston Casas, Vinnie Pasquantino and even Spencer Steer, aren’t being unreasonable. The bigger mistake from a forecasting standpoint would be to dismiss the fact that Goldschmidt has seemingly landed in the perfect environment with the Yankees to get back to at least the 25-homer mark next season, a feat he’s accomplished eight times in the last 11 full seasons dating back to 2013. The elite batting averages that made him a fantasy superstar for over a decade have probably evaporated for good, but if he can hover around the .250 range, and also steps into New York’s lineup as a middle-of-the-order, high-volume counting stats accumulator with 25 homers and double-digit stolen bases, that’s probably enough to make him a borderline top 10 option at the position from a fantasy perspective heading into spring training. We’ll feel a bit more confident from a projection standpoint once we get a glimpse of Goldschmidt’s batted ball data in Grapefruit League action, but he looks like an obvious bounce-back candidate in New York.
How much does Chase Field impact Josh Naylor’s fantasy outlook?
This move is a bit more complex from a fantasy standpoint since Naylor’s brand of raw power doesn’t figure to be impacted much at all by the move to the desert, although we weren’t anticipating a repeat of last season’s career-high mark in the over-the-fence pop department. The 27-year-old ascended to upper-echelon status last year when he posted a robust .243/.320/.456 triple-slash line with 84 runs scored, 31 homers, 108 RBI and six stolen bases across 633 plate appearances. He’s blossomed into a complete first baseman without any glaring weaknesses in his fantasy profile and the move to Chase Field, which has been middle-of-the-pack (14th out of 30 ballparks) from an overall park factors standpoint for left-handed hitters over the last three seasons, per Baseball Savant. It's graded out near the bottom of the league in terms of over-the-fence power for lefty sluggers, especially since they installed the humidor back in 2018.
Some looming regression for Naylor in the home run department will probably be offset by gains in the batting average created by Chase Field’s BABIP-inflating tendencies. We’re not going to vault someone like Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, Triston Casas or Spencer Steer over Naylor at the cold corner, but the move to Arizona widens the gap between him and the truly elite at the position heading into 2025. It’s possible the biggest impact Naylor makes for the Diamondbacks is further narrowing Pavin Smith’s path to everyday at-bats, making him the club’s primary DH heading into next season.
What does Carlos Santana’s arrival do for Cleveland’s first base situation?
The ripple effect of Naylor’s departure from Cleveland included the return of old friend Carlos Santana, who finds himself back where it all started for him as a fresh-faced rookie catcher back in 2010. The 38-year-old switch-hitting veteran still makes a ton of contact and has plenty of pop left in his bat. His platoon splits remain some of the most extreme in baseball as he contrasted a .934 OPS against southpaws with a ghastly .676 OPS against right-handed pitching. The lack of significant upside makes him a borderline top 30 option at the position, which limits his appeal to extremely deep mixed leagues.
Meanwhile, Guardians top prospect Kyle Manzardo flopped last year in his first taste of the big leagues but ultimately wound up making the team’s postseason roster and contributed during the club’s extended playoff run. The decision to jettison Naylor to Arizona is seemingly a vote of confidence that Cleveland’s front office believes he’s ready to be a near-everyday option against right-handed pitching. Manzardo figures to split time with Santana at first base but will likely spend most of next season paired with fellow youngster Jhonskensy Noel (aka Big Christmas) on the strong side of a platoon at designated hitter. He’s barely going inside the top 500 picks (492nd, on average) in early NFBC drafts, which makes him a decent late-round sleeper candidate, even if he’s a utility-only option at the outset of the 2025 campaign.