O’s re-charge rotation with Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano
How much of a fantasy impact will Japanese stalwart Tomoyuki Sugano make in Baltimore?
The Orioles bolstered their starting rotation mix on Monday evening, signing Japanese right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13 million contract.
What exactly is Baltimore getting in Tomoyuki Sugano?
With the status of free agent ace Corbin Burnes still up in the air, Sugano provides Baltimore with a reliable innings-eater behind former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin heading into the 2025 season. There’s work left to be done this offseason as Baltimore is still going to need to fill out the rest of their rotation mix via trade or free agency. They might roll the dice with Dean Kremer and Trevor Rogers to open the year, but that seems like a risky strategic approach. They’re expected to get both Kyle Bradish (elbow) and Tyler Wells (elbow) back sometime around midseason, but they still are going to need to add at least two or three additional depth arms.
The 35-year-old lacks premium velocity, averaging just a shade over 93 mph on his four-seam fastball at this juncture, but he’s seemingly mastered a command-oriented approach that transformed him into one of Japan's premier starting pitchers for the past decade as the longtime ace of the Yomiuri Giants. After years of speculation, he’ll finally make the leap to the major leagues after taking home Central League MVP honors last year by registering a sparkling 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 111/16 K/BB ratio across 156 2/3 innings. His diverse five-pitch arsenal is anchored by a deadly splitter that generates plenty of whiffs and should translate well to the big leagues. He also mixes in a sweeper, cutter and curveball. We’re not anticipating a ton of strikeouts, but he’d seemingly rather walk across hot coals than hand out a free pass, and has shown an ability to limit hard contact by keeping hitters off-balance and prioritizing ground balls. I’m not claiming to be a pitching savant, but given his lengthy track record, it feels like his approach will translate to the majors, and should help mitigate some of the risks involved with pitching at Camden Yards, especially since the park is expected to be more hitter-friendly moving forward following changes to the left-field wall.
How much of a fantasy impact will Sugano make in Baltimore?
The lack of strikeout upside limits Sugano’s fantasy appeal to deeper mixed leagues at the outset of the 2025 campaign, but he should provide a serious lift in the ratio departments as a back-end rotation stabilizer for fantasy purposes. Fantasy managers tend to underestimate the benefits of ratio-boosters like Sugano since their impact isn’t as easily recognized as flashy strikeout artists. It’s worth noting that last year represented a massive bounce-back campaign for the Japanese ace on the heels of an injury-plagued 2023 season. There are some durability concerns, which make forecasting anything beyond 125 innings a bit of a risk. Fortunately, with the vast majority of teams shifting to six-man rotations, or building in extra rest for their five-man mixes, the lack of a huge innings total isn’t a dealbreaker for fantasy purposes. There’s definitely reason for optimism that Sugano will excel in Baltimore, but the realistic strikeout ceiling caps his ultimate upside. Still, he's a decent late-round target in deep mixers heading into next season and will probably wind up as a top 75 starting pitcher by the time spring training rolls around.