Rankings Debate Club – First Basemen
George Bissell and Dave Shovein defend their fantasy rankings for Freddie Freeman, Michael Busch and Christian Encarnacion-Strand.
We want to start by wishing our readers and subscribers a safe and happy holiday season. It may be frigid outside, but spring training is officially less than 100 days away. We’re just getting started here at The Buzz and are greatly looking forward to the upcoming 2025 season. Our positional preview series, which kicked off last week with a look at the catcher landscape, continued earlier this week with our first run of Top 40 First Base Rankings for 2025. There were some differences of opinion. Instead of exchanging a series of angry texts, George Bissell and Dave Shovein decided to engage in a (mostly) friendly debate regarding some of the cold corner options for fantasy managers that we disagree on the most at this early stage of the process including Freddie Freeman, Michael Busch and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Without further delay let’s dive right to the heated debates.
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (2) Bissell: (3) Shovein: (1)
Personally, I didn’t think that I’d be out on a ledge by having Freddie Freeman as the top overall first baseman, but we live in crazy times. The perennial first-round fantasy draft pick and five-category monster, Freeman had a bit of a down season by his lofty standards in 2024 while dealing with multiple injuries and missing time while his son was dealing with a scary illness. Then he went bonkers in the postseason on his way to winning the World Series MVP. He’s still situated in perhaps the best lineup spot in all of baseball with Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani hitting directly in front of him which will lead to him being among the league leaders in RBI once again while producing an elite batting average and scoring a plethora of runs. He’ll also slug 25-30 homers and steal 10-plus bases. When you put all of that together, he pops off as the top overall option at the position in fantasy drafts once again this season. Imagine my surprise when I saw that he’s the third option off the board according to average draft position (ADP) and going in the middle of the second round in 15-team drafts. With all due respect to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper, I’ll take the reliability of Freeman and his contributions in the stolen base category every time. – Dave Shovein
It's not a Grand Canyon-sized divide, but I’m less bullish on Freddie Freeman from a raw projection standpoint than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (who will be highly motivated as he prepares to hit free agency next offseason) and Bryce Harper entering the 2025 campaign. Call me (and the vast majority of early NBFC drafters) crazy. Despite his advanced age, I’ll concede that Freeman remains a certifiable five-category impact fantasy stalwart. Unfortunately, he’s becoming more brittle as he enters the twilight years of his remarkable career. That’s not an unexpected development. The 35-year-old veteran battled through an injury-plagued 2024 campaign where he still managed to suit up for 147 contests (and the postseason) despite a sprained ankle (which required offseason surgery), broken rib cartilage and a hairline fracture on the middle finger of his right hand. Freeman remains one of the most reliable power and counting stats sources in the fantasy landscape as we’re still confident projecting 25 homers, and double-digit stolen bases, along with elite runs scored and RBI totals, thanks to Los Angeles’ absolutely loaded lineup. However, at his age it’s probably unrealistic to forecast a full season’s worth of at-bats. There simply isn’t enough of a gap in the batting average department of my statistical forecast between Freeman and the tandem of Guerrero Jr. and Harper to offset the fact that I’m much more confident projecting them to reach the 30-homer plateau, while I’m struggling to get Freeman past 25 dingers. Just to be clear, this isn’t an anti-Freeman argument at all, but his age certainly amplifies the potential risk that he misses time. It’s a small difference of opinion, but I simply prefer Guerrero Jr. and Harper over him from a re-draft standpoint. – George Bissell
Michael Busch, Cubs
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (16) Bissell: (19) Shovein: (13)
This is a fun one for me. My rankings at each position are fully driven by my projections, which eliminate any biases that I may have. Going in, I have no idea who is going to grade out where and who I’m going to be interested in. If you had asked me a month ago if I’d have any interest in Michael Busch, I’d probably have said you were crazy. The 26-year-old was terrific in his first full season, slugging 21 homers with a .775 OPS. He’s locked in as the Cubs’ everyday first baseman and should hit cleanup in an improved lineup with Kyle Tucker situated ahead of him. Without any improvements to his game, Busch should be able to replicate (or even improve upon) his 2024 campaign, which would already make him a strong value at his current average draft position. If he can continue to improve his plate discipline though and/or continue to tap into his massive underlying power, the sky could be the limit. – Dave Shovein
This is where we disagree the most in our projections at the cold corner. Without delving too deep into the raw numbers, which tends to give everyone a popsicle headache, I’m a bit skeptical that Michael Busch reaches the 20-homer plateau for the second consecutive season and also takes a marginal step forward in the batting average department. For starters, Busch’s plate skills, most notably a near 30-percent strikeout rate, don’t scream potential fantasy superstar. There were always questions regarding his long-term power upside and Wrigley Field isn’t exactly a hitter’s paradise these days, especially for left-handed sluggers. I won’t spoil Dave’s forecast here, but his optimism puts Busch closer to the top 12 range at the position, while I’m closer to the 18-20 range. Personally, these are the differences of opinion that I value the most because it informs my draft strategy at the position (and corner infield as well) in deeper mixed leagues, revealing that I’m probably going to be the least aggressive on Busch in the middle rounds and more likely to wind up with a Michael Toglia, Christian Encarnacion-Strand or Yandy Díaz as my corner infielder. – George Bissell
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Reds
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (19) Bissell: (16) Shovein: (22)
It's challenging to project Christian Encarnacion-Strand after missing nearly the entire 2024 season recovering from surgery to repair ligament damage in his right wrist. The positive news here is that he looked healthy during an Arizona Fall League stint and should have a normal offseason heading into spring training. He figures to open next year as Cincinnati's primary first baseman under new manager Terry Francona and still boasts 30-homer upside in a full-time role. The 25-year-old former top prospect’s contact issues figure to persist into the future, but if he can keep that number slightly under 30 percent, he's going to make an impact for fantasy managers. The lack of hype surrounding Encarnacion-Strand is what makes him extremely appealing for me heading into drafts next spring as fantasy managers seem to be overlooking the fact that he’s a borderline lock for 25 homers and is probably going to find himself in the heart of the Reds’ lineup in short order, especially if he proves to be more than just an all-or-nothing slugger. He’s a massive bargain as a corner infield option in deeper mixed leagues since he’s currently being selected, on average, outside the top 225 (228th overall) in early NFBC drafts. – George Bissell
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is an admittedly difficult player to project after missing the entirety of the 2024 season. It’s almost like we should be taking our projections for the 2024 season and running them back now that the 25-year-old slugger proved his health in the Arizona Fall League. I’m a bit skeptical though. In the limited time that we saw him during the 2024 season, Encarnacion-Strand posted a 28.5 percent strikeout rate and walked just 3.3 percent of the time. He also didn’t show any of the prodigious power that was supposed to be his calling card. CES also finds himself in a crowded infield situation, and it would be very easy for new skipper Terry Francona to slide Jeimer Candelario or Spencer Steer over to first base more often if he struggles out of the gate. The upside is there for sure, but fantasy managers should be wary that the floor for Encarnacion-Strand is extremely low as there are clear paths to him being out of the lineup altogether if he doesn’t start the season strong. – Dave Shovein