Rankings Debate: Second Basemen
George Bissell and Dave Shovein debate their fantasy rankings for Jordan Westburg, Brandon Lowe and Jackson Holliday.
Happy New Year! If you’re new here at The Buzz, welcome aboard. We’re excited to have you with us on this brand-new venture as we approach the 2025 season and are looking forward to the official launch of our daily fantasy baseball newsletter once spring training kicks off. Over the next few weeks we’ll be rolling through the remainder of our positional preview series to get fantasy managers fully prepared heading into draft day. The days of the well-worn draft magazine are rapidly fading into oblivion and that’s why we decided to embark on this journey to give fantasy managers a year-round daily resource to stay one step ahead of their competition, especially since we’re entering an era where an avalanche of information is widely available, most notably on social media threads hyping the latest breakout you’ve never heard of. Measured analysis from experienced industry veterans is becoming an endangered species, but we’re trying to bring it back, like a fantasy baseball version of Jurassic Park. That’s it. That’s our New Year’s Resolution. We’re excited to have all of you along for the ride.
The idea for a series of debates at each positional group began to germinate after we began to notice several extreme differences of opinion from a projections standpoint on certain players during the process of compiling our positional rankings. Differences of opinion are healthy. This exercise is designed to give fantasy managers a peek behind the curtain at our internal thought process and help us clearly explain the rationale behind out statistical forecast and outlook. In case you’ve missed it, here are the earlier installments in the series:
The Buzz - 2025 Fantasy Baseball - Rankings Debates
Catchers: Willson Contreras, Logan O’Hoppe and Joey Bart
First Base: Freddie Freeman, Michael Busch and Christian Encarnacion-Strand
This week’s installment features showdowns on a handful of second basemen that we disagree on strongly, including Jordan Westburg, Brandon Lowe and Jackson Holliday. Without further delay, let’s dive into the debates.
Jordan Westburg, Orioles
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (12) Bissell: (6) Shovein: (17)
His fantasy appeal takes a considerable hit if he’s stuck towards the bottom of Orioles manager Brandon Hyde’s lineup card next season, since that would limit his runs scored and RBI opportunities, but Jordan Westburg broke out in a big way last year, batting .264/.312/.481 with 18 homers and six steals in just 107 contests before suffering a right-hand fracture in late July that pretty much ended his season. He’s also going to have to hold off top prospect Coby Mayo, who looks like Baltimore’s third baseman of the future, and is knocking on the doorstep of the big leagues back at Triple-A Norfolk. There are some risks here, but the case for the 25-year-old former top prospect as a borderline top five option at the position is straightforward since he projects as a virtual lock to reach the 20-homer mark and is also capable of chipping in double-digit steals. Here's the complete list of second basemen who met those statistical thresholds last year: Jose Altuve. That’s it. That’s the list. Westburg probably isn’t going to make the leap to full-fledged fantasy superstar, but his extremely high floor, and likelihood that he’ll reach it, makes him one of the safest options at the keystone. – George Bissell
This could be another case of me just preferring the “old and boring” types of players as opposed to the up and coming starts, but I do have legitimate concerns about Westburg heading into the 2025 season. The first is the hand fracture that he suffered in July. While he’s recovered from it, hand and wrist injuries have been known to sap players of their power for the first season after returning. I’ve still got him at 20 homers, but I don’t think that the upside is unlimited in that category. The bigger concern is the fact that he’ll hit near the bottom of the O’s lineup, which will ding his counting stats considerably. I also don’t feel like his speed is really an asset at the position. I have Westburg projected for seven stolen bases in 2025, and all but one of the 16 second baseman that I have ranked above him beat that mark, the only exception being Ketel Marte with six. While flirting with double digit stolen bases sounds nice, you’re actually losing ground in the category at the position and will have to plan to make it up elsewhere if rostering Westburg. – Dave Shovein
Brandon Lowe, Rays
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (16) Bissell: (19) Shovein: (12)
My best friend called me the world’s most optimistic pessimist when we were growing up. My constant ability to immediately gravitate towards envisioning the best and worst-case scenario outcomes simultaneously is one of my defining characteristics. I’ve learned to embrace this mindset, and chart a tempered middle course, especially when it comes to forecasting future statistical performance. That brings us to Brandon Lowe, who is one of the most challenging hitters to project in the entire fantasy landscape given his omnipresent back issues, which have limited him to fewer than 110 contents in three consecutive seasons since blasting a career-high 39 round-trippers over 149 games back in 2021. It would be illogical to firmly believe that former top prospect Curtis Mead, one of my favorite sleeper candidates at the position, is on the cusp of a breakout season while also anticipating Lowe to stay healthy for an entire year. It’s possible the move to George M. Steinbrenner Field, which projects as a certifiable high-octane offensive environment, especially for left-handed sluggers, enables Lowe to easily surpass the 30-homer threshold, even in a partial season. I’m just more optimistic that some of Tampa Bay’s younger alternatives like Mead and Jonathan Aranda (or even Richie Palacios) start to establish themselves as viable platoon options at the highest level, which could wind up eating into Lowe’s playing time share at the keystone and designated hitter. I’m probably a few spots too low (pun not intended) here, but I’m struggling to project Lowe for anything close to a full season of at-bats as he enters his early 30’s and continues to deal with persistent back issues. – George Bissell
I knew when running through my projections at the keystone that I was going to come out higher than the market on Lowe and that has certainly come to fruition. As George alluded to, it’s all about health here. If he plays anything close to a full season, he’s going to crush all expectations and deliver a massive amount of profit from his current draft spot. He doesn’t even need a full season, just give him 450 at-bats and let the profit roll in. With the Rays playing their home games in a minor league park, Lowe should flirt with 30 homers once again with strong counting stats hitting in the top third of the Rays’ lineup. The 30-year-old slugger ranks 12th for me at the position without even taking into account any replacement value for the time that he inevitably does spend on the injured list. There’s certainly risk involved in calling Lowe’s name on draft day, but I truly believe that his ceiling far exceeds any of the other options that are being drafted near him at the moment. If you choose to wait on the second base position, miss out on your top targets early on or simply want to add power at a position that doesn’t produce a whole lot of it, Lowe makes for a tremendous late-round option. – Dave Shovein
Jackson Holliday, Orioles
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (2) Bissell: (16) Shovein: (32)
The risk/reward ratio associated with Jackson Holliday is off the metaphorical charts heading into 2025, as our guest analyst Sara Sanchez wrote earlier this week in our brand-new “Ask The Experts” segment. The former top prospect in baseball was a spectacular flop last year in his Orioles debut, but the fact that he was even keeping his head above water as a 20-year-old rookie was extremely impressive. He’s among the most challenging hitters to forecast given the Mt. Everest-sized gap between his prospect pedigree and what we all witnessed last year as he struck out in 33 percent of his 208 plate appearances at the highest level. If he’s going to establish himself as an everyday player at the highest-level next season, he’s going to hit for enough power (15-20 home runs) and steal enough bases (10-15 thefts) to make an impact for fantasy managers. The fact that he’s currently being selected outside the top 200 picks (216th overall), on average, in early NFBC drafts means that fantasy managers don’t have to take a massive risk to speculate on his considerable upside. This is a bet on elite talent eventually figuring it out. – George Bissell
Going back to the same initial gripe that I had with Holliday’s Orioles teammate, I’m once again fading the up-and-coming stars of Major League Baseball while settling on the proven commodities. Unlike Westburg though, we haven’t seen Holliday have any sort of success at all at the big-league level. I have no doubt that he’s going to have a long and successful career at the game’s highest level, I just don’t think that it’s going to happen in 2025. It’s not just the 33 percent strikeout rate, it’s also the putrid 9.8 percent line drive rate while Holliday pounded the ball into the ground at a 54.9 percent clip in his 208 plate appearances with the O’s. Could he put it all together suddenly and be a superstar right out of the gate, sure anything is possible. I just think that he’s far more likely to spend a substantial portion of the 2025 season at Triple-A Norfolk then he is to ascend to superstardom in his sophomore season. He does have a high ceiling, so if fantasy managers want to take a shot on him after pick 200 and see how he looks for the first few weeks, that could end up paying tremendous dividends. Just know that the floor is insanely low and be sure to have a contingency plan in place in the event that Holliday not only struggles gets relegated back to the minors for more seasoning. – Dave Shovein