Sleeper Candidates: First Basemen
George Bissell and Dave Shovein break down their favorite sleeper candidates at first base heading into next season.
The nebulous “sleeper” label has evolved into all-encompassing shorthand in the fantasy baseball lexicon to highlight undervalued players heading into draft season. Every fantasy manager seems to have a different interpretation. The Buzz is sticking with the more traditional historical definition by classifying sleeper candidates as mostly unheralded or unproven players (or aging veterans that are being similarly overlooked) that are currently flying under-the-radar (typically late-round selections) but have a real chance to emerge next season as impact fantasy contributors. George Bissell and Dave Shovein provide in-depth breakdowns of their biggest fantasy sleepers at the catcher position including: Jonathan Aranda, Jonah Bride, Spencer Horwitz and Justin Turner.
Jonathan Aranda, Rays
NFBC ADP: 458
Here’s an oversimplification: Aranda ranked sixth in the major leagues last year in Baseball Savant’s barrels per plate appearance (11.2 percent) metric among hitters with at least 50 batted ball events and projects to benefit exponentially next season from Tampa Bay’s unplanned relocation to George M. Steinbrenner Field. The minor-league venue, which currently serves as the Yankees’ spring training complex and High-A ballpark, graded out as an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark for left-handed power in Baseball America’s park factors, thanks to its Yankee Stadium-style short porch in right field. Baseball Prospectus author Jacob Edelman’s recent regression tree modeling analysis article reveals that Aranda’s batted ball profile, which features an extreme pull-heavy approach to right field, should enable him to thrive at Steinbrenner Field. I won’t spoil the entire article. It’s fantastic. Fantasy managers should check it out and subscribe to Baseball Prospectus. They do phenomenal work.
The case for Aranda putting together a breakout campaign appears relatively straightforward: He hits the ball extremely hard, typically to right field, and should thrive in a ballpark ideally suited for his offensive approach. It's undeniable that his rather extensive track record of success at the Triple-A level, which includes a robust .315/.415/.546 triple-slash line across 231 contests since 2022, has yet to translate to the big leagues in limited opportunities. The 26-year-old will face some competition from offseason acquisition Eloy Jiménez in spring training but appears poised to open next season as Tampa Bay’s primary option at designated hitter against right-handed pitching. It’s a perfect storm of environmental factors coming together that give Aranda a real shot at mixed-league relevance next year. He’s the perfect low-risk late-round lottery ticket in deeper mixed leagues on the chance that his pull-heavy tendencies result in a legitimate 25-plus homer fantasy breakthrough. — George Bissell
Jonah Bride, Marlins
NFBC ADP: 588
The Marlins’ roster is a bit of a mess and doesn’t seem like the ideal place to be looking for offensive production heading into the 2025 season. That doesn’t mean there isn’t any value to be mined there though. Given their overall lack of quality options, Jonah Bride has a very clear path to everyday at-bats as their starting first baseman and should find himself hitting in the middle of the Marlins’ lineup. The 28-year-old had his first taste of success at the big league level in 2024, slashing .276/.357/.461 with 11 homers and 39 RBI in just 272 plate appearances while settling in as the club’s cleanup hitter to end the season. He has great plate discipline and doesn’t strike out much and has been able to tap into his limited power with a pull-happy approach. Bride isn’t going to steal any bases and is highly unlikely to crack even 20 home runs over the course of a full season. He should hit for a nice batting average though and he should be able to approach 140 runs+RBI as long as he maintains his spot in the middle of the lineup. It’s not a sexy pick by any stretch of the imagination, but at an ADP after pick 400, there’s more than enough production to be had here in order to return a profit. — Dave Shovein
Spencer Horwitz, Pirates
NFBC ADP: 403
I’d love to roll the dice on top prospects like Bryce Eldridge or Nick Kurtz ascending to the big leagues earlier than originally anticipated or push the metaphorical chips to the center of the table on all-or-nothing slugging prospect Deyvison De Los Santos making an unexpected breakthrough in the contact department, but those are extreme low-probability gambles from a re-draft standpoint. Horwitz was acquired earlier this month from the Blue Jays as part of a three-team swap to take over as Pittsburgh’s first baseman of the future. The 27-year-old showcased exceptional plate skills and blasted 12 round-trippers in 381 plate appearances last year for Toronto in his first taste of the big leagues. He’ll go through a bit of an adjustment period as he acclimates to everyday life at the highest level, and faces NL pitching for the first time, but he projects as a 15-20 home run threat that also pairs a .260-range batting average with decent counting stats as a middle-of-the-order mainstay for the Pirates. Given the overall lack of appealing cold corner options for fantasy purposes outside of the top handful of upper-echelon contributors, Horwitz (who still has second base-eligibility entering next season) offers some appeal as an under-the-radar contributor, especially in deeper mixed leagues. He’s currently being selected as the 30th first baseman, on average, off the board in early NFBC drafts. I’d put him closer to the top 25 range at the position on the strength of a robust .270 batting average and 20 home run projection. – George Bissell
Justin Turner, Free Agent
NFBC ADP: 677
It’s incredibly strange to call a 40-year-old slugger with 16 years of big-league experience a sleeper, but the fantasy community as a whole has been flat-out ignoring Justin Turner in early drafts this season. Part of that could be due to the fact that he’s still languishing on the free agent market, but that should be rectified soon — whether it’s a return to the Mariners or perhaps to the Mets if they’re unable to bring back Pete Alonso. Regardless of where he winds up though, Turner should continue to see regular at-bats in the middle of his respective team’s lineup. The skills remained mostly intact for him during the 2024 campaign and he actually posted his best walk rate (10.9 percent) since 2018. The one real concern was his dip in power and corresponding drop in exit velocity. If you’re looking for late power from your corner infield or utility spot, Turner is not going to be the guy for you. However, if you’re looking for someone who could get 550 plate appearances, hit for a strong batting average and drive in 65-plus runs — at an average draft position that currently sits outside the top 550 players overall — then Turner looks like an awfully appealing option. — Dave Shovein