The Buzz: AFL kicks off, Painter returns

The Arizona Fall League is back. So is Andrew Painter. Here we go.

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Arizona Fall League Kicks Off 

With several consensus top 100 prospects littering lineup cards, it was unheralded Athletics outfield prospect Denzel Clarke who stole the show on Monday evening to kick off the Arizona Fall League season, going  2-for-4 with a pair of stolen bases in Mesa’s low-scoring 1-0 victory over Surprise. Clarke has showcased a solid power/speed combo in the upper minors, but has struck out nearly 30 percent of the time at Double-A Midland over the past two seasons. His performance was the lone standout during Monday’s AFL lid-lifter, but that doesn’t dampen the excitement for the rest of the fall showcase. Here are the rest of the big-name dynasty prospects that were in action on Monday evening:

Jac Caglianone, 1B, Royals: 0-for-4, 2 K

Universally-regarded as one of the top fantasy prospects from the 2024 MLB Draft class, Caglianone didn't exactly set High-A Quad Cities during a brief 29-game cameo, but he's among the most prominent names in the fall circuit. He's a borderline top 12 dynasty first baseman entering 2025.

Moises Ballesteros, C, Cubs: 0-for-3, BB

It's a bit perplexing Ballesteros didn't receive a late-season promotion just for the Cubs to see what they have heading into 2025, but he figures to factor into their catching plans in the early stages of next year after posting an .826 OPS with 19 homers across 124 games between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa.

Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays: 1-for-3, BB, K

Isaac's offensive numbers don't exactly leap off the page, but he finished this past season as a certifiable top-10 range dynasty first baseman after slugging 41 extra-base hits (18 round-trippers) in 102 contests between High-A Bowling Green and Double-A Montgomery. It's worth noting that the plate skills weren't sublime, but he was nearly a presidential term younger than the rest of the competition at the Double-A by the conclusion of the year. He's one of the big names to watch this fall in AFL action.

Painter to make AFL debut this weekend

Perhaps the biggest development from a fantasy baseball standpoint occurred off the diamond with the Phillies sending top pitching prospect Andrew Painter to the AFL. The 21-year-old righty missed the entire 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery last July, but looked extremely impressive in recent bullpen sessions and will progress to facing hitters in live game action for the first time since spring training prior to the 2023 season when he suffered a right elbow injury that ultimately required surgery. He’s scheduled to work two innings in his AFL debut on Saturday, and the Phillies hope he’s able to complete roughly 20 innings by the end of the AFL season, building up to three innings per start.

Given his prodigious raw talent, and proximity to the big leagues from a development standpoint, there’s a strong possibility Painter is under consideration for an early-to-midseason call-up once he’s had a chance to sufficiently build up his stamina and workload. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters on Monday afternoon that he thinks Painter will be pitching at the big-league level at some point in 2025. The lost development time amplifies the short-term risk in his profile, but assuming that the stuff is back to pre-surgery levels, there’s little reason to believe he won’t make a significant impact for fantasy managers at some point in the near future.

There’s an argument to be made for Tigers burgeoning ace Jackson Jobe as the top pitching prospect in baseball from a pure dynasty standpoint heading into next season; however, if we’re speculating purely on talent and upside alone, Painter should still be considered at the apex of dynasty rankings heading into spring training. His impending AFL debut this weekend will be must-watch content for fantasy managers.

Stat To Know

4

Only four hitters – Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Anthony Santander and Juan Soto – eclipsed the lofty 40-homer plateau this past season, which represented the second-lowest single-season total in the last decade. From a league-wide standpoint, the 2024 campaign’s 5,453 round-trippers represented the third-lowest (non-pandemic shortened) total since 2015. Simply put, home run totals are on the decline, which places an even greater premium on potential elite over-the-fence power producers, especially in the mid-to-late rounds. 

Dynasty Stock Watch 

– Up – Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers

There’s some recency bias baked in here since Carpenter launched arguably the most consequential homer in recent Tigers history when he took Cleveland ace closer Emmanuel Clase deep for a tie-breaking three-run shot during Monday’s ALDS Game 2 victory at Progressive Field. The 27-year-old slugger was limited to just 87 contests this past season due to a lingering spine issue that cost him nearly three months of action, but still managed to clobber 18 round-trippers and finished with a robust .284 batting average, despite all of the missed time. Given the scarcity of elite over-the-fence pop in the fantasy landscape coming out of the 2024 season, it’s not unthinkable to envision Carpenter threatening the 40-homer threshold next year, if he manages to stay healthy. That should make him an easy top-40 dynasty outfielder and a prime offseason trade target for dynasty league managers.