The Matt Shaw Era Begins
The Kyle Tucker blockbuster signals the arrival of Cubs top prospect Matt Shaw.
The most consequential trade from a fantasy standpoint came to fruition on Friday afternoon with the Cubs acquiring superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros for infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and third base prospect Cam Smith. The fantasy ramifications of the four-player swap are wide-ranging. We’ll get to Tucker’s immediate outlook at Wrigley Field in a moment, but the biggest development for fantasy managers involves the Cubs clearing an interstate-sized pathway for top prospect Matt Shaw to open the upcoming season in the big leagues as Chicago’s starting third baseman.
How high should Matt Shaw go in 2025 fantasy drafts?
The versatile 23-year-old infielder, who was selected 13th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft out of the University of Maryland, shook off a frosty start to last season, cementing his status as one of the top prospects in the entire fantasy landscape, slashing .284/.379/.488 with 21 home runs (43 extra-base hits) and 31 stolen bases across 443 plate appearances between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. There might be some initial turbulence as he adjusts to everyday life in the majors, but Shaw projects as an immediate five-category impact fantasy contributor thanks to his combination of advanced plate skills, sneaky power and above-average speed. Paredes’ unexpected exit from Chicago’s infield mix resolves the biggest unknown in his profile from a forecasting standpoint heading into next season, opening the possibility for a legitimate 15-homer, 15-steal rookie season in an everyday role. To put those numbers in context, only three third baseman – José Ramírez, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Matt Chapman – joined the 15-15 club last year. The batting average is going to be the biggest separator for Shaw as his minor league track record, and ability to spray the ball to all fields, suggests there’s some upside above and beyond a reasonable .260 baseline projection.
Prior to the Tucker blockbuster, Shaw checked in at 82nd overall in my latest Top 500 Dynasty Rankings for Rotoworld, and he’s going to rise a couple spots on the basis that we’re confident projecting roughly 500 plate appearances for 2025, even if he finds himself consistently on the lower third of Chicago manager Craig Counsell’s lineup card. The fact that we’ve never seen Shaw do it at the highest level amplifies the risk, and means we should hedge slightly in our projection, but a 15-homer, 20-steal floor feels about right. Those numbers would put him in the top 15 neighborhood from a re-draft standpoint, somewhere in the vicinity of Luis Rengifo, Alec Bohm, Isaac Paredes, Maikel Garcia and Eugenio Suárez heading into spring drafts. Shaw is unlikely to crack the top dozen names at the position next season, but he’s among the most complete offensive prospects in the fantasy landscape and Chicago’s bold move further signals that he’s on the precipice of making a significant impact.
How much does the trade impact Kyle Tucker’s fantasy value?
Speaking of big-name fantasy contributors, Tucker has been a perennial first-round selection in all fantasy drafts for nearly a half-decade at this juncture. The 27-year-old stalwart was putting together his strongest all-around offensive campaign last year and would’ve eclipsed 29 homers for the fourth consecutive season, had he not suffered a bizarre shin fracture in early June, which ultimately kept him on the shelf for over three months until early September. His track record as one of the most consistent five-category fantasy contributors is undeniable, and he’ll remain a borderline first-round pick in all drafts next spring, but the move to Chicago isn’t exactly a boon for his value.
Tucker is the type of hitter that will produce regardless of his surroundings, but park factors matter on the margins from a forecasting standpoint. Wrigley Field isn’t exactly a hitter’s paradise, ranking 23rd out of 30 ballparks over the past three seasons for left-handed home run power in Baseball Savant’s park factors. Simply put, it’s a big step back from Minute Maid Park, which checked in at ninth overall for lefty over-the-fence pop during that span. We’re not eliminating the possibility entirely, but forecasting Tucker to easily surpass the 30-homer plateau just became a bit more challenging. There’s probably going to be an adjustment period as Tucker acclimates to facing NL pitching for the first time in his career, but we’re nit-picking one of the most complete hitters in the fantasy landscape. If there’s a reason for optimism here it’s that Chicago manager Craig Counsell was far more willing to let his speedsters run last year than Astros skipper Joe Espada. The Cubs attempted just over one steal per-game last year, which was the ninth-highest rate in the game, while the Astros checked in near the bottom of the league at 24th overall.
One of the bigger downstream effects of the deal involves former top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who winds up losing his starting role to create a spot for Tucker’s arrival. That might only wind up being temporary as the Cubs have reportedly been shopping outfielders Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. It wouldn’t be surprising to see either one of them jettisoned in the coming days or weeks to get Crow-Armstrong back into center field. The 22-year-old speedster got off to a slow start in the big leagues last year, but ended up hitting .262 with seven homers and 10 steals in 63 contests following the All-Star break.
How much does Isaac Paredes benefit from the trade?
Perhaps it’s only fitting that the hitter with the most bizarre batted-ball profile in baseball is headed to his third organization in less than a calendar year. Paredes’ extreme pull-heavy approach is tailor-made for the left-field Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park, which should enable him to eclipse his previous career-high mark of 31 big flies, which he set with the Rays back in 2023.
The soon-to-be 26-year-old feels like a strong bet to at least reach the 25-homer mark next season and should get a boost in the counting stats department batting ahead of Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz in Houston’s strong lineup. Prior to the deal, Paredes was being selected outside the top 20 at the hot corner, on average, according to early NBFC draft data. That’s going to change dramatically in the coming months. If we’re locking in a 25-homer floor, Paredes is closer to a borderline top-15 option at the position in the territory of Josh Jung, Luis Rengifo, Matt Shaw, Alec Bohm, Eugenio Suárez and Maikel Garcia.