Early ADP Analysis: Third Base
Dave Shovein takes a deep dive into early NFBC average draft position data to give fantasy managers an edge heading into next season.
Even for the most casual fantasy drafters, entering a draft without any type of plan at all is a sure recipe for disaster. One of the most important tools at the disposal of any fantasy manager is average draft position. It’s the data that gives everyone insight into the going rate for each player in fantasy drafts.
ADP isn’t a static tool though, it evolves over time. It will show us trends, whether a player is moving up or down in the rankings. It also gives us insight into the maximum and minimum picks made for every player. Using this data should be absolutely critical in developing your plan of attack for your next fantasy draft.
Every Tuesday in this series I’ll take an early look at how ADP is shaping up at each position. I’ll attempt to highlight where the tiers fall at each position, areas of the draft that you may want to target the position and players that I may be avoiding at their current draft cost.
If you haven’t checked it out yet, we have already gone through three positions – the catcher preview that was posted three weeks ago, the first base preview from two weeks ago and the second base preview from last week.
Full disclosure, nearly all of my fantasy endeavors are done at the NFBC where both their 12-team and 15-team formats utilize rosters that start 23 players (14 hitters, 9 pitchers). That includes two catchers. The analysis will be viewed primarily through that lens but there should be plenty of insights that can be taken away to other formats as well.
On to the hot corner!
Here’s a look at how ADP is shaping up at the position as of now. For this exercise, I’m looking at the data from NFBC Draft Champions leagues (15-team, 50 rounds) from the last two weeks. As we get closer to the season and drafts become more prevalent, I’ll start to shrink that window a bit to make sure we’re looking at the most accurate and up-to-date information.
This time around we’re looking at the top 50 options at the position by current ADP, as there are a couple of players outside the top 40 that I wanted to touch on. As we progress throughout the off-season, I’ll likely dive even deeper than that to uncover some late-round gems.
When taking my first overall glance at the ADP data here, we see that there’s a very clear-cut top option at the position in José Ramírez, and then four other top options that are bunched closely together – with Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Riley, Rafael Devers and Manny Machado all residing between picks 25-41.
After those top five, there’s a big jump down to Mark Vientos at pick 91. He’s bunched closely together with Junior Caminero and Jordan Westburg to get us to pick 103. You’ve then got another four names bunched between picks 118-139 in Jake Burger, Royce Lewis, Matt Chapman and Alex Bregman, giving us a well-defined top 12 options at the position.
There are then just three additional options at the position going off the board between picks 140-200 in Luis Rengifo (160), Eugenio Suárez (176) and Alec Bohm (185).
So how to we want to attack the position? Great question. Like we did with the other positions that I have already explored, we’re going to start by seeing how the ADP lines up against our rankings to see which players we are in or out on.
The order has been jumbled a bit, but our top five options at the position match the clearly defined top five that the market has set. I’ve always been a big believer in Jose Ramirez and wouldn’t mind him as a first-round option depending on what else is there, but you can’t really count on getting him, so let’s see what else the position has to offer.
I am intrigued by Chisholm Jr., though his current ADP (25.5) seems to have his high ceiling already priced into it. Depending on what I did in the first round and what was available to me in the second, there are builds where I would probably consider him.
Devers and Riley don’t really fit the mold of how I generally like to build my teams, as I want my foundation pieces on offense to help me across the board and neither delivers anything in the stolen base department. I do have Machado ahead of both, while ADP has him fifth, but it’s not an overwhelming value.
Where my values seem to lie is in the next tier of players. I have Bregman and Chapman – who are the 11th and 12th players off the board by ADP – as the sixth and seventh best options at the position on my board. Bregman’s value may ultimately fluctuate some depending on where he ultimately lands this winter, but both look like strong early values to me.
I also have Alec Bohm and Eugenio Suarez popping as very strong values, as they’re the eighth and ninth names on my board but 14th and 15th according to ADP. I’m way behind the market on most of the other top options at the position – Mark Vientos, Junior Caminero, Jordan Westburg and Royce Lewis.
In a situation such as this, where there isn’t one clear-cut target, but four guys all in kind of the same ranges who look like strong values, I would try to game ADP a bit more at this position. I wouldn’t necessarily be looking for Bregman or Chapman at their minimum picks, but someplace closer to their actual ADP if I could.
As of now, Chapman’s min pick over the last few weeks is pick 109 while Bregman’s is down at 125. Like we have in this exercise at the other positions, assuming we have the eighth pick and are picking in the middle of the draft, I’d be looking to snag either of them in the eighth (113) or ninth (128) rounds, depending on what other positions I was targeting in that same range.
If I missed on each of them, I would fall back to either Suarez or Bohm. As of now, their ADP’s sit at 176 and 185 respectively, with min picks of 143 and 159. I still don’t think I’d be trying to set new min picks on either, but I’d be open to either in the 10th (143) or 11th (158) rounds.
If there ends up being a big run on third baseman and we wind up left out in the cold on each of those first four names, the next guy I would be looking to is Matt Shaw. The Cubs rookie third baseman is a threat to challenge for 20-20 in his debut season and unlike most top prospects, the market price doesn’t seem to have caught up to the hype just yet. His current ADP sits way down at pick 230 with a min of 177. While I generally like to play it safe and take solid, proven production early on in drafts, these are the types of risks that I love taking in the middle rounds. His stock is going to soar come March when it’s clearer that he’s locked in as a regular in the Cubs’ lineup, but as of now I’d be looking his way all day in the 12th round at pick 173.
If we miss on Shaw and must shop in the bargain bin at the position – or are scouring through these parts looking for corner infield options – I’m higher than the market on Ryan McMahon, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jose Tena among the later round options. Tena specifically is a guy who is very interesting to me as a corner infield option. He’s got that dazzling blend of power and speed that all fantasy managers covet, and I have him for 12 homers and 14 stolen bases with a solid .266 batting average on the season. Combine that with some decent counting stats in what should be a much-improved Nationals’ lineup, and there’s no reason to think that Tena won’t deliver a profit at his current ADP (390).
I’m also neutral, or slightly above the market on Nolan Arenado, Christopher Morel and Connor Norby while way under on perennial injury risks Max Muncy, Josh Jung and Ke’Bryan Hayes.
A couple of other interesting names that I wanted to highlight late, for those that are playing in Draft Champions formats are Jace Jung and Ernie Clement. Both have clear paths to full-time (or at a minimum strong-side platoon) at-bats to begin the season and both are very intriguing talents. Clement has an interesting blend of power and speed that could make him a fun late corner infield option. Jung has a terrific eye at the plate and flashed strong power numbers throughout the minor leagues, we just haven’t seen it translate yet. Either could be crushed completely if their respective clubs sign Bregman – which could be why their prices are so low at the moment. Both look like strong buying opportunities right now though.
Remember, this is just the draft plan as of now, at current draft prices. Things are going to shift up and down as we progress closer to our big drafts in March and we’ll continue to monitor and update the draft plan as we go. Things also could change as we progress through other positions and find different pockets of value at different positions.
Hopefully at some point in my ramblings here you were able to at least glean some valuable information that you can take with you when attempting to craft your draft plan for the upcoming season. If you perform the same types of exercises at every position, know the player pool forward and backwards and know in which pockets of the draft you’re more likely to target each position, then you’re already a few steps ahead of the competition and well on your way to competing for a league title.