Rankings Debate: Third Basemen
George Bissell and Dave Shovein debate fantasy rankings for Junior Caminero, Royce Lewis, Isaac Paredes and Eugenio Suárez.
If you’re new here at The Buzz, welcome aboard. We’re excited to have you with us on this brand-new venture as we approach the 2025 season and are looking forward to the official launch of our daily fantasy baseball newsletter once spring training kicks off. Over the next few weeks we’ll be rolling through the remainder of our positional preview series to get fantasy managers fully prepared heading into draft day. The days of the well-worn draft magazine are rapidly fading into oblivion and that’s why we decided to embark on this journey to give fantasy managers a year-round daily resource to stay one step ahead of their competition, especially since we’re entering an era where an avalanche of information is widely available, most notably on social media threads hyping the latest breakout you’ve never heard of. Measured analysis from experienced industry veterans is becoming an endangered species, but we’re trying to bring it back, like a fantasy baseball version of Jurassic Park. That’s it. That’s our New Year’s Resolution. We’re excited to have all of you along for the ride.
The idea for a series of debates at each positional group began to germinate after we began to notice several extreme differences of opinion from a projections standpoint on certain players during the process of compiling our positional rankings. Differences of opinion are healthy. This exercise is designed to give fantasy managers a peek behind the curtain at our internal thought process and help us clearly explain the rationale behind out statistical forecast and outlook. In case you’ve missed it, here are the earlier installments in the series:
The Buzz - 2025 Fantasy Baseball - Rankings Debates
Catchers: Willson Contreras, Logan O’Hoppe and Joey Bart
First Base: Freddie Freeman, Michael Busch and Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Second Base: Jordan Westburg, Brandon Lowe and Jackson Holliday
This week’s installment features showdowns on a handful of third base options that we disagree on, including Royce Lewis, Junior Caminero, Isaac Paredes and Eugenio Suárez. Without further delay, let’s dive into the debates.
Junior Caminero, Rays
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (10) Bissell: (7) Shovein: (17)
There’s always a ton of volatility from a historical standpoint when it comes to top prospects breaking into the majors, especially when they’re on the younger side. Yet, I’ll continue to bet on elite talent. Simply put, Junior Caminero’s astronomical raw power makes him one of the most electric talents to enter the third base landscape in a long time. The 21-year-old phenom didn’t look completely overmatched last year during a brief 43-game stint last year at the highest level when he batted .248 (41-for-165) with six homers and two steals. We’ve discussed the positive impact transitioning from Tropicana Field to George M. Steinbrenner Field’s high-octane offensive environment projects to have for Tampa Bay’s younger power hitters and Caminero stands to be one of the main beneficiaries of a few additional deep fly balls traveling over the fence.
With zero obstacles to everyday at-bats and his spot cemented in the heart of the Rays’ improving lineup, Caminero projects as the rare, ballyhooed prospect that appears poised to exceed fantasy manager’s expectations. I’m much more optimistic on him from a batting average forecasting standpoint since elite sluggers boasting stratospheric exit velocities tend to run extremely high BABIP’s. I’m extremely bullish on his fantasy outlook confidently forecasting a .260-.270 batting average with 30-plus home run upside. There might be some initial turbulence, but he’s a unique talent and he’s going to get every opportunity to establish himself as Tampa Bay’s next franchise cornerstone. Caminero feels like an absolute steal for fantasy purposes, being selected just outside the top 100 picks overall, on average, in early NFBC drafts. His time is coming. — George Bissell
I’ll admit that Caminero is a ridiculously talented prospect and I wholeheartedly believe that he’ll have a very long and successful career. That being said, I think that the hype will exceed his fantasy production — at least for the 2025 season. Sure, he’s the type of talent that could just take a major leap forward and take the world by storm in his sophomore campaign, but the way I see it he’s really a three-category player. I don’t expect Caminero to hit for a positive batting average and I don’t think he’ll deliver more than a handful of stolen bases. I’m also a bit skeptical of his counting stats hitting in the middle of what looks to be an underwhelming Rays’ lineup. I’d be willing to take a chance on the upside if he were in the pick 150-200 range, but he’s already priced up at pick 100 by average draft position and the cost is only going to rise from there. It could easily come back to bite me, but I’m looking for more of a sure thing with my picks inside the top seven rounds, I’ll let you beat me with Caminero if you’re taking him that early. — Dave Shovein
Royce Lewis, Twins
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (14) Bissell: (8) Shovein: (20)
Another player who is insanely talented and should produce some monster numbers overall when he’s on the field. The issue with Royce Lewis, is that he just can’t stay healthy. The dynamic 25-year-old hasn’t played a full season since he was a 20-year-old at Double-A during the 2019 season and he has topped out at 292 at-bats in his first three seasons with the Twins. He also stopped running altogether in 2024 — perhaps in an effort to avoid the injured list — with zero stolen base attempts in 82 games. Expect strong numbers in the front four categories when he’s healthy, with first or second round upside if he plays a full season. Deciding to gamble on Lewis is a move that could pay tremendous dividends if he plays anything close to a full season, just be prepared that his floor is incredibly low. Once again, I’m not hating on the player, I just generally like to avoid those types of risk profiles – especially early in the draft – and he’s still going inside the top 125 picks overall. That’s too rich for my blood. — Dave Shovein
Let’s set aside the omnipresent health concerns. They’re already baked into any sort of projection for Lewis already since nobody is expecting him to actually stay healthy for anything close to a full season. However, it’s difficult to overlook the raw power numbers he’s been able to put up in limited action, blasting a staggering 31 round-trippers in just 140 contests over the past two seasons. I’m less concerned than Dave about his lack of stolen bases given the league-wide uptick over the last few years due to rule changes and my confidence to identify those steals sources elsewhere in the later rounds or stages of an auction. It’s becoming much harder to identify a potential 30-homer slugger capable of also delivering a respectable batting average. I’ve always been a firm believer in a strategic approach to roster construction that embraces risk as opposed to mitigating it. There’s a chance Lewis misses a ton of time due to injury, but if he manages to play at least 120 games, it’s challenging to envision a scenario where he doesn’t eclipse 25 homers and finish as a top 12 option at the hot corner. He’s one of the first names that I’d consider throwing out in an auction draft on the chance that I can parlay his injury concerns into a considerable discount. — George Bissell
Isaac Paredes, Astros
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (16) Bissell: (11) Shovein: (19)
The former Tigers’ top prospect who was never able to blossom on Motown should be putting his pull-happy power stroke on full display in Houston, where the Crawford boxes in left field are extremely inviting. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if Isaac Paredes is able to top the career best 31 homers that he slugged with the Rays during the 2023 season. He also gets a nice boost in supporting cast with the Astros and could wind up hitting in between Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez at the top of the lineup. That all sounds great, right? So why is he not ranked higher on my board? The issues are that he’s not going to steal any bases and he’s a career .232 hitter. I don’t think that the move to Houston is going to improve his batting average, so you’re looking at a true three-category contributor who could wind up being a drain on your batting average. The power plays and gives him fantasy value, and there are worlds where if I miss out on my top targets at the position and have a strong batting average that I could take a shot on him, but there are plenty of options at the position that grade out much better overall on my board. — Dave Shovein
Paredes’ pull-heavy offensive approach seems tailor-made for Minute Maid Park, which makes it relatively easy to confidently lock in a realistic 25-homer floor for his Astros debut. The development that isn’t garnering a ton of headlines or optimism at the moment from fantasy managers is that Paredes appears poised to slot into the second spot in the Astros’ lineup following the departures of both Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman behind veteran table-setter Jose Altuve and in front of middle-of-the-order forces Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker. If the move to Houston’s hitter-friendly offensive environment buoys his batting average into the merely pedestrian .230-.240 territory, he’s going to pile up a ton of volume in the counting stats departments (runs scored and RBI). Paredes is being set up for immediate success in his Astros debut and I’m not sure fantasy managers are accounting for the impact all of those extra counting stats will have in terms of driving his fantasy value. Embrace the risk. — George Bissell
Eugenio Suárez, Diamondbacks
2025 Rankings: The Buzz (12) Bissell: (15) Shovein: (9)
If you just took at glance at Eugenio Suárez’s overall line from the 2024 season, you’d definitely come away thinking that he had a very strong season overall. When you factor in that he haplessly flailed to a .192/.274/.312 slash line with just six homers and 32 RBI in his first 77 games, it’s jaw-dropping. He then went on to slash .312/.359/.607 with 24 long balls and 69 RBI in his final 81 games. Suárez remains one of the best overall power options at the third base position, having just eclipsed the 30-homer plateau for the sixth time in his last seven full seasons (excluding the truncated 2020 campaign). He also posted his lowest strikeout rate (27.5 percent) since 2018. If you’re not buying into a full repeat performance in 2025, that’s perfectly fine, there’s still plenty of profit to be had at an average draft position right around pick 175 overall. There’s also the potential ceiling that he paces the entire position in home runs. — Dave Shovein
I’m not forecasting significant regression for Suárez, especially from an over-the-fence power standpoint, on the heels of a 30-homer campaign during his stellar Diamondbacks debut. The 33-year-old has been extremely durable over the last decade and remains a shining example of the benefits that can be attributed to mashing in extremely hitter-friendly environments, most notably Cincinnati and Arizona. Fantasy managers should feel confident locking in at least 28 homers with strong counting stats and a respectable batting average. The hot corner landscape is changing rapidly around Suárez with youngsters like Junior Caminero, Mark Vientos, Jordan Westburg, Royce Lewis and Matt Shaw all projected to be among the most impactful contributors at the position. He’s been undervalued for years at this juncture and is one of the safest, high-floor, four-category impact producers out there, but I’d rather roll the dice by targeting a higher upside play like Caminero, Vientos or Lewis (especially in the early stages of an auction), if I’m unable to land one of the elite options — José Ramírez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Riley, Rafael Devers or Manny Machado — early on. — George Bissell