Early ADP Analysis: Starting Pitchers

Dave Shovein takes a comprehensive look at early NFBC average draft position (ADP) data for starting pitchers to give fantasy managers an edge.

Even for the most casual fantasy drafters, entering a draft without any type of plan at all is a sure recipe for disaster. One of the most important tools at the disposal of any fantasy manager is average draft position. It’s the data that gives everyone insight into the going rate for each player in fantasy drafts.

ADP isn’t a static tool though, it evolves over time. It will show us trends, whether a player is moving up or down in the rankings. It also gives us insight into the maximum and minimum picks made for every player. Using this data should be absolutely critical in developing your plan of attack for your next fantasy draft.

Every Tuesday in this series I have taken an early look at how ADP is shaping up at each position. I’ll attempt to highlight where the tiers fall at each position, areas of the draft that you may want to target the position and players that I may be avoiding at their current draft cost.

If you haven’t checked it out yet, we have already gone through all of the hitters: catchers, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, outfield and utility.

Full disclosure, nearly all of my fantasy endeavors are done at the NFBC where both their 12-team and 15-team formats utilize rosters that start 23 players (14 hitters, 9 pitchers). That includes two catchers. The analysis will be viewed primarily through that lens but there should be plenty of insights that can be taken away to other formats as well.

On to the behemoth that is the starting pitcher landscape.

Here’s a look at how ADP is shaping up at the position as of now. For this exercise, I’m looking at the data from NFBC Draft Champions leagues (15-team, 50 rounds) from the last two weeks. As we get closer to the season and drafts become more prevalent, I’ll start to shrink that window a bit to make sure we’re looking at the most accurate and up-to-date information.

This time around we’re looking at the top 150 options at the position by current ADP. As we progress throughout the off-season, I’ll likely dive even deeper than that to uncover some late-round gems for deeper formats

At the top of the list you’ll find two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, and despite the fact that he’s going to be locked into team’s utility spot for most of the season, he does pitch as well and technically sits at the top of the list. The Dodgers deploying a six-man rotation will severely limit any chances that Ohtani would have had at two-start weeks, so it’ll be surprising to see many teams deploy him as a starting pitcher at all in weekly leagues.

After that we get to the first two true starting pitchers in Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. Both are obviously great, which is why you’ll need to spend a first-round pick to get either of them in most formats. Skenes dazzled in his rookie season and should be primed for a regular workload in 2025. Skubal was the best pitcher in baseball in 2025 and captured his first Cy Young Award, though he did see a major increase in innings. As long as both of them stay healthy, they aren’t going to hurt you from their first-round draft spot. It would depend on what else is on the board for me if I’m picking in the back half of the first round, there’s a chance that I could look in their direction.

After the top two, you have three more arms that have rooted themselves in the second round of drafts and could climb even higher as we approach March. Zack Wheeler has been a model of consistency and continues to exceed expectations every season. Eventually as he gets older you would expect that production to fall off somewhat — and he will turn 35 during the season — but there have been no signs of slowing down here.

Garrett Crochet was an absolute monster for fantasy managers in 2024 and now he’s pitching for a team that may win some games, and he won’t have the huge workload restriction that limited him in 2024. He feels an awful lot like Skubal did heading into drafts last March and could end up near the end of the first round when all is said and done.

The final resident of the second round is Logan Gilbert. The 27-year-old right-hander has developed into an absolute workhorse for the Mariners and he’s fresh off a season where he registered a minuscule 0.89 WHIP over 208 2/3 innings. It would be nicer if the M’s tried to improve their offense this winter, as it impacts Gilbert’s ability to win games, but there’s no denying that he belongs in the second round of drafts.

A couple of long-time veterans reside just outside the second round, starting with Chris Sale. The 35-year-old southpaw experienced a career renaissance in his first year with the Braves, winning 18 games and capturing the National League Cy Young Award. Durability has always been a major concern with Sale — which may be enough to keep me away from him at this price — but if he avoids the injured list there’s no denying the skills.

The other player that sits here with an ADP of 39 is Jacob deGrom. He’s going to be one of the most polarizing players on fantasy draft boards in March, with some managers avoiding him entirely and some possibly treating him as a top three option at the position. When healthy, deGrom has proven himself to be among the best pitchers on the planet. The problem is that he hasn’t logged more than 92 innings in a season since 2019. He’s going to be great when he takes the mound, and if he can get even 120 innings of that elite production, he probably won’t hurt you from this draft spot. He's not someone for the risk-averse drafter though, which is why I’ll probably be staying away.

After deGrom, there’s a grouping of five pitchers between ADP 41.3 and 49.1 in Corbin Burnes, George Kirby, Blake Snell, Dylan Cease and Cole Ragans. I’ve got all these guys ranked similarly, but the one that I’m probably most likely to draft out of this group would be Kirby. He simply doesn’t walk anyone and is a lock for a strong WHIP — something that Cease won’t provide while Snell and Ragans have risk as well. Kirby is going to concede strikeouts to all the arms in this group, but he works deep enough into games that he’ll still pile up around 180 strikeouts purely on volume.

Excluding Ohtani, we’re now 12 names down on the list, meaning that most teams now have their SP1 and some could be looking for their SP2 already. If you don’t get anyone from that first 12, you’re going to have to find a way to make up that ground in the middle rounds.

After Ragans we have more than a 10 pick jump to the next cluster of starting pitchers with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Michael King, Gerrit Cole, Framber Valdez and Pablo López all sitting between ADP 59.7 and 65.2. I don’t necessarily dislike anyone from this group, but I’m higher on Cole, Valdez and Lopez than I am on Yamamoto and King.

After Lopez there’s another small drop before the next cluster between ADP 76.4 and 88.5 which includes Shota Imanaga, Roki Sasaki, Bailey Ober, Bryce Miller, Spencer Schwellenbach, Tanner Bibee and Aaron Nola. I’m pretty much out on Sasaki, as there are too many unknowns with his health (possibly needing Tommy John?), the transition to the big leagues and the Dodgers rolling with a six-man rotation for me to justify that type of draft capital. The name that I like best of that group is Nola, unless George finds a way to talk me out of him when we debate our biggest differences later this week.

That takes us through the top 24 options at the position and shows a bit where the different groupings are. In 12-team leagues, everyone should on average have their top two starting pitchers from that group, while in 15-team leagues roughly half of the teams would already have their SP2.

Now for the fun part. Let’s look at how my rankings compare to ADP and how I want to be attacking the position overall.

The first name that pops off the list where I vary significantly from ADP is Nola. He’s the SP12 on my board and the SP24 by ADP. He’s certainly not someone that I would trust as my ace but is absolutely in the mix as someone I could be looking at as my SP2. While there are some red flags in the profile that hint at decline, he’s still an absolute workhorse and pitching for one of the best teams in the National League. Nola has logged 180 or more innings in each of his last six full seasons (2020 excluded) and hit 193 2/3 or higher in five of those. The elevated home run rate has caused his ERA to bounce around a bit over the years, but he’ll give you a strong WHIP and he has averaged 218 strikeouts over the last six seasons. I don’t think he’s getting nearly the credit that he deserves. He’s going off the board at pick 88.6 on average with a min pick over the last couple of weeks at pick 75. I have no issues going near that min pick and locking him in as my SP2 at the end of the fifth or the beginning of the sixth round depending on how the rest of the draft falls to me and where my other targets end up being.

The next name that jumps off my board and probably makes me look crazy to most is Bowden Francis. I realize that having him ranked as my SP16 looks insane, though if he’s able to replicate what he did down the stretch in 2024 it may not even be aggressive enough. Francis was a game-changer for fantasy managers who picked him up off waivers in the second half of 2024 — going 4-2 with a 1.53 ERA and unfathomable 0.53 WHIP and a 56/7 K/BB ratio over 59 innings in nine starts after joining the rotation on August 7. He’s obviously not going to continue at that level and flirt with a no-hitter every time out like he did in 2024, but there’s nothing in the skills profile that leads me to believe he can’t be an elite starting pitcher. The biggest concern here is going to be the jump in workload after working just 123 innings between the Jays and Triple-A Buffalo in 2024. The good news is that you don’t have to take him anywhere near the cost of SP13 as he sits as the SP67 by ADP way down at pick 232. I must believe that tightens up as we get closer to March. The number that I’ll be watching with Francis is that min pick. Right now, over the past couple of weeks, it sits at 203. Given the huge discrepancy that I have with him, I’d be fine jumping that min pick by a round or two to ensure that I get him. If we’re picking from the middle of the draft at pick eight, I would be looking his way in the 12th (173) or 13th round (188) to ensure that I get him. If for some reason the draft plays out differently and there are other things that I need from those rounds, I’d still be at his recent min pick in round 14 (203) and would have a high likelihood of snagging him there as well.

So that’s my first big target based on the difference between my rankings and ADP, who’s the next one you ask? It’s long-time favorite Justin Verlander. I know, I simply can’t quit the guy and my projection for him heading into 2025 is probably too ambitious. He was effective in 2024 though before the neck injury ultimately derailed his season. Through his first eight starters, JV posted a 3.26 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 44/15 K/BB ratio over 47 frames before experiencing the neck tightness. He then struggled through a pair of starts before hitting the injured list for an extended period and was simply never the same afterwards. While that early sample isn’t quite vintage Verlander, it’s still pretty darn good. His biggest issue has always been surrendering the long ball, and the move away from Minute Maid Park and the Crawford boxes to the vast expanse at Oracle Park in San Francisco should make a major difference in that capacity. Verlander is a very prideful guy and is intent on pitching until he gets his 300^th win. He has also changed his off-season workout regimen and for the first time in his career he didn’t stop throwing at all over the winter. It’s unlikely he returns to his previous highs and challengers for the National League Cy Young award, but he’s absolutely going to surprise people and deliver a substantial profit from his current draft cost at ADP 373 as the SP107. On my board, Verlander is ranked as the SP25. Like Francis, he’s going to be an active target of mine in every draft — and not one that I’m going to have to take anywhere near cost. His current min pick sits at pick 279. I do expect that number to rise considerably once fantasy managers see him healthy and throwing during spring training, but it’s not going to change substantially. I’ll be looking his way in round 17 (248) if I’m picking from the middle of the draft.

So we have two late-round targets that we want to make priorities in our rotation and want to grab at least one ace in the early rounds, maybe two depending on how else things fall. Who else in the middle rounds are we going to be seeking out though?

While not as big of values as Francis or Verlander on my board, I appear to be higher than the market on both Robbie Ray and Jack Flaherty. I have them as the SP20 and SP21 respectively while the market has them as the SP46 and SP42. Both look like strong targets in the middle rounds for me. Ray is currently going off the board around pick 151 with a min pick of 126 while Flaherty has an ADP of 140 and a min pick as high as 93. I think that the price on Flaherty specifically will continue to rise now that we know he’s going to be pitching for the Tigers — a team that should win plenty of games — and in a very favorable home ballpark. Flaherty will probably depend on where I’m at with my SP1 (or SP2 if I have already), but I could see myself trying to grab him in that pick 90-100 range if I need to add some stability to my rotation. As of now, Ray looks like the easier of the two to acquire and I would be thrilled to land his strikeout upside as my SP3 in round eight (113) or nine (128).

Other names in that range that show up as values on my board, but not quite big enough to be active targets are Yusei Kikuchi, Carlos Rodón and Justin Steele. All are players that I could have interest in at or around cost – or earlier depending on how things fall with my other targets. As we know, pitching always gets pushed up the board as we get closer to the end of March and injuries start to crop up.

Kevin Gausman looks like another solid middle round target for me, depending on how the rest of my rotation shakes out to that point. He’s the SP39 on my board and the SP50 by ADP at pick 167. That type of strikeout upside is just so difficult to find in that range of the draft. I’ll probably want to check in on his velocity numbers during the spring though before pulling the trigger here.

Clarke Schmidt is another middle round option that pops on my board, he’s the SP55 on my rankings and the SP63 according to ADP. He’s going around pick 222 on average with a min pick of 181 and is someone that I would be comfortable looking at anywhere within that range.

A bit further down the list we have three big discrepancies all with ADP’s currently north of pick 300 — Clay Holmes, Max Scherzer and Matthew Boyd. They’re the SP58, SP62 and SP63 respectively on my draft board while the market has them at SP88, SP100 and SP95. They all carry varying amounts of risk with them, but near pick 300 we’re willing to take the chance and bet on talent. Holmes, the question is whether he’ll be able to make the transition to the starting rotation for the Mets. We saw so many success stories in relievers transitioning to starters in 2024 — Crochet, King and Reynaldo López — that it’s surprising that fantasy managers aren’t buying into the possibility of this one yet. If it looks like he’s going to break camp in the Mets’ rotation, he’s someone that I’m fine with anywhere near the min pick of pick 270. Scherzer, like Verlander, is simply a bet on talent and him finally being fully healthy. He only made nine starts in 2024, but what we saw in those starts was good – a 3.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 40/10 K/BB ratio over 43 1/3. Again, strikeout upside is so difficult to find late in the draft, I’d gladly gamble on someone with nine 200+ strikeout seasons under his belt. Boyd is another player that I’ve had a hard time quitting over the years, but if he’s able to avoid the injured list he should return a strong profit from this spot. His recent min pick is pick 258 and is someone that I would be looking to in either the 17th (248) or 18th (263 round).

It's obviously a very deep position with quality options littered up and down the board. The key is identifying players that you feel strongly about and aggressively targeting them to build out your rotation. For me, those players are Francis, Verlander, Ray, Flaherty, Scherzer, Boyd and Holmes. If I can mix in four or five of those guys with a strong ace at the top and a quality option or two sandwiched around them, I’ll be thrilled with the way that my staff looks heading into the 2025 campaign.

Hopefully at some point in my ramblings here you were able to at least glean some valuable information that you can take with you when attempting to craft your draft plan for the upcoming season. If you perform the same types of exercises at every position, know the player pool forward and backwards and know in which pockets of the draft you’re more likely to target each position, then you’re already a few steps ahead of the competition and well on your way to competing for a league title.