Rankings Debate: Outfielders

George Bissell and Dave Shovein square off on their fantasy rankings for outfielders Mike Trout, Bryan Reynolds, Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena.

If you’re a new subscriber here at The Buzz, welcome aboard. We’re excited to have you with us on this brand-new venture as we count down to the official launch of our daily fantasy baseball newsletter once spring training kicks off. Over the next few weeks we’ll be rolling through the remainder of our positional preview series to get fantasy managers fully prepared heading into draft day.

The idea for a series of heated rankings debates at each positional group came together after we began to notice several differences of opinion from a projections standpoint on certain players during the process of compiling our positional rankings. Differences of opinion are healthy. This exercise is designed to give fantasy managers a peek behind the curtain at our internal thought process and help us clearly explain the rationale behind out statistical forecast and outlook. In case you’ve missed it, here are the earlier installments in the series:

The Buzz — 2025 Fantasy Baseball Preview — Rankings Debates

Catchers: Willson Contreras, Logan O’Hoppe and Joey Bart

First Base: Freddie Freeman, Michael Busch and Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Second Base: Jordan Westburg, Brandon Lowe and Jackson Holliday

Third Base: Royce Lewis, Junior Caminero, Isaac Paredes and Eugenio Suárez

Shortstop: Masyn Winn and Xavier Edwards

This week’s installment features the quartet that we disagreed on during the process of compiling our Top 100 Outfield Rankings for 2025 in Mike Trout, Bryan Reynolds, Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena. Without further delay, let’s dive into the debates.

Mike Trout, Angels

2025 Rankings: The Buzz (48) Bissell: (32) Shovein: (65)

This one wasn’t surprising to me at all, as I knew that I would be the low man on Trout. It’s not about the talent, as he’s a lock for Cooperstown and has produced gaudy numbers whenever he has been able to stay on the field. Health is a skill though, and it’s one that he’s never really had. Trout has played a total of 266 games over the past four seasons, maxing out at 119 contests back in 2022. Entering his age-33 season, it’s tough to think that he’s going to become more durable and will finally find a way to avoid the injured list. Like he did in 2024, Trout will produce when he’s in the Angels’ lineup and make those who faded him look foolish. That is, until he inevitably hits the injured list once more. I think that I was generous giving him even 425 plate appearances and he still grades out as just the 65th ranked outfielder on my board. — Dave Shovein

This is the biggest disagreement we’ve had in the entire offseason process. There’s no way I’m refuting Dave’s valid concerns regarding Trout’s health and durability, especially after last year when he underwent a pair of left knee surgeries. However, the possibility that Trout is considering moving to DH next season is a new wrinkle that adds some intrigue. I’m not willing to dismiss the possibility of a late-career renaissance from a Hall of Fame caliber talent, especially if the position change enables Trout to avoid putting any further miles on his body and keeps him fresher. It’s not inconceivable that Trout benefits exponentially from the move to DH and manages to stay healthy for at least 100-125 contests, which puts him in the 30-40 homer range from a projection standpoint. It also helps that so many fantasy managers are willing to write him off completely due to omnipresent health concerns and are willing to let him continue to slide on draft day. Without being hyperbolic, I’m stunned fantasy managers are writing off Trout entirely when the solution to keeping him moderately healthy is staring everyone in the face. — George Bissell

Bryan Reynolds, Pirates

2025 Rankings: The Buzz (28) Bissell: (25) Shovein: (34)

It surprised be a bit to see how down I was on Reynolds compared to George and to the general market. He’s a player that I like and the consistency that he provides from year-to-year is certainly a positive. I think my issue is that he’s much more of a high floor player and doesn’t have the ceiling to justify being a top 100 pick overall. I think he’ll do something like what he did in 2024, I just don’t see him taking a major step forward to propel himself into that upper-echelon of outfielders – not while the Pirates’ lineup is going to be bringing down his counting stats. — Dave Shovein

We’re not that far apart on this one, but it’s a prime example that illustrates the difference in our process where Dave’s valuation model places a greater emphasis on some of the younger speed-oriented options within the position group. I’ll make the case for Reynolds as a consensus top 100 pick, which revolves around his near half-decade track record of consistent production as he’s averaged 29 homers and nine steals on a per-season basis for four straight years dating back to 2021. There’s going to be some gradual decline as he approaches the metaphorical back-nine of his career, but there’s nothing in his underlying batted ball data to suggest he won’t reach the 20-homer plateau next season for the fifth consecutive year. I can absolutely make the case for younger alternatives like Riley Greene, Dylan Crews, Josh Lowe, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Parker Meadows possessing higher five-category ceilings, but if we’re banking on what is most likely to transpire next season, I’d bank on Reynolds living up to his draft day acquisition cost. — George Bissell

Victor Robles, Mariners

2025 Rankings: The Buzz (36) Bissell: (51) Shovein: (23)

I knew that I would be higher than the market than most on Robles but didn’t realize just how far ahead until I looked at the numbers. All it took was a change of scenery for the former top prospect to finally put it all together in his age-27 season with the Mariners in 2024. He swiped 34 bases in roughly half of a season’s worth of plate appearances, so I’m probably not giving him enough credit by only projecting 41 thefts as the M’s everyday leadoff man. The fact that he’ll give you that while flirting with double digit homers and a positive batting average makes him a screaming value anywhere close to his current ADP (pick 193). Ultimately, it depends on team construction though, as you’ll have to be able to take advantage of the speed to make it work. — Dave Shovein

As the founder of the Victor Robles bandwagon during my Baseball Prospectus days, this is a weird position to be in. I want to believe. Trust me. Robles’ metamorphosis immediately upon arrival last summer in Seattle was fueled by slashing his strikeout rate and a massive spike in hard-hit rate. Are either of those sustainable? We’ll find out. I hate to admit that I’m slightly skeptical since it was a pretty small sample size. I love the aggressive ranking from Dave and it’s certainly going to be warranted if Robles’ newfound offensive approach and freewheeling tendencies on the basepaths make him a top-of-the-order spark plug for the Mariners. The pragmatic solution here is to embrace the risk with Robles and roll the dice that last year’s breakthrough wasn’t a mirage, but I’m not willing to take him over some of the more established options in the top 20-30 range at the position. — George Bissell

Randy Arozarena, Mariners

2025 Rankings: The Buzz (37) Bissell: (34) Shovein: (41)

I’ve been a member of the Arozarena fan club since he broke in with the Rays in 2020, so it pains me to be on the other end of this one. If you can handle the poor batting average, I do believe that he’s a near lock to slug 20 home runs and swipe 20 bases for the fifth consecutive season. That has fantasy value, I’m not going to deny it. He slashed a cringe-inducing .219/.332/.388 in 2024 though and his counting stats fell off considerably. Hitting in the middle of the Mariners’ lineup, that isn’t likely to change in 2025. He’s also playing in a poor park for right-handed power, which may be part of the reason that he hit only five home runs in 54 games after joining the Mariners. He’s someone that I would consider at cost if I had the batting average built up to handle him, but Arozarena is not a player that I’ll be actively targeting in 2025. — Dave Shovein

Noticeable declines in both hard hit and barrel percentage in addition to a free-falling line-drive rate make it nearly impossible to forecast a full rebound next season from Arozarena in the batting average department. However, he still boasts enough power-speed production to easily envision him posting another 20-homer, 20-steal campaign, especially if he remains aggressive on the bases. Arozarena’s continued erosion from an underlying batted ball metrics standpoint combined with T-Mobile Park’s pitcher-friendly environment aren’t reasons for long-term optimism, but he’s only entering his age-30 campaign and should be able to finish as a top 30 range outfielder for at least another season or two. — George Bissell