ADP Analysis: Relief Pitchers
Dave Shovein breaks down the relief pitcher landscape from an average draft position standpoint.
Even for the most casual fantasy drafters, entering a draft without any type of plan at all is a sure recipe for disaster. One of the most important tools at the disposal of any fantasy manager is average draft position. It’s the data that gives everyone insight into the going rate for each player in fantasy drafts.
ADP isn’t a static tool though, it evolves over time. It will show us trends, whether a player is moving up or down in the rankings. It also gives us insight into the maximum and minimum picks made for every player. Using this data should be absolutely critical in developing your plan of attack for your next fantasy draft.
So far in this series I have taken an early look at how ADP is shaping up at each position. I’ll attempt to highlight where the tiers fall at each position, areas of the draft that you may want to target the position and players that I may be avoiding at their current draft cost.
If you haven’t checked it out yet, we have already gone through all of the hitters – catchers, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, outfield and utility. We also profiled starting pitchers.
Full disclosure, nearly all of my fantasy endeavors are done at the NFBC where both their 12-team and 15-team formats utilize rosters that start 23 players (14 hitters, 9 pitchers). That includes two catchers. The analysis will be viewed primarily through that lens but there should be plenty of insights that can be taken away to other formats as well.
On to the behemoth that is the relief pitcher landscape.
Here’s a look at how ADP is shaping up at the position as of now. For this exercise, I’m looking at the data from NFBC Draft Champions leagues (15-team, 50 rounds) from the last two weeks. As we get closer to the season and drafts become more prevalent, I’ll start to shrink that window a bit to make sure we’re looking at the most accurate and up-to-date information.
This time around we’re looking at the top 60 options at the position by current ADP.
The relief pitcher position is one of the most difficult positions to navigate in all of fantasy baseball. Failing to get the saves that you need to compete is an easy way to derail an otherwise excellent team. There’s no worse feeling than getting your offense and starting pitching to levels that you need to compete but ultimately falling short of your goal because you missed your target in saves.
It’s a double-edged sword though. While you have to draft at least a couple of closers and get them right, they also require significant draft capital to do so. The price of the elite closing options seems to go up every year, meaning that if take one of the high-end options early you had better get it right. Not only would you be passing on an elite starting pitcher or a potential five-category bat, but if that pick ultimately implodes it’s going to take your team down with it.
What I like to do, is identify which closers on the board that I feel good about and go from there. Good ratios are helpful, and everyone loves to see the monster strikeout totals, but the most important things that we are looking for in our closers are health and job security. We want someone who is has the full faith of their manager and will continue to get the ball even if he blows a few saves early in the season. In the end, the saves total is paramount here.
For me, I usually wind up with one of the elite options – someone that I feel I can lock in for around 30 saves, quality ratios and high strikeouts as long as he stays healthy. I’ll then go back to the well and grab my second closer earlier than most, as I want to get one of the last available options that I still feel good about.
Before we dive into which players I have identified and will be targeting for this season though, let’s take a look at the overall landscape at the position. Things change fast here, and if there are any injuries or role changes, the ADP will swing drastically, which is why we’re looking at just the last two weeks’ worth of data.
According to the market, there appears to be a very clear cut top seven options at the position, with Emmanuel Clase the best of the bunch with an ADP of 31.75 on down to Ryan Helsley at 52.75. That means that in a 15-team league, nearly half of the teams are grabbing their first closer in the first three or four rounds. That’s how early you have to pounce if you want a high-end option at the position. Clase, Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams have separated a bit as the top four options within that group, all going inside the top 40 picks overall. Mason Miller, Raisel Iglesias and Helsley round out the top seven, all going between picks 45 and 52.
After Helsley, there’s a small dip down to Andres Munoz, Felix Bautista and Jhoan Duran. Those three are all bunched together between picks 62 and 66. Remember though, every league is different and the closer runs can be massive. Most drafters are trying to get the last name or second to last name that they have in a particular tier of players, so they’ll wait until that tier starts to get drafted before they jump in. It’s not uncommon to see five or six closers plucked in the same round once a run begins.
After Duran, both Ryan Walker and Robert Suarez have kind of settled into a tier of their own at picks 81 and 82 respectively. Jeff Hoffman then checks in nearly two rounds later at pick 109. Another round later you’ll find Tanner Scott at pick 121.
Once you get past those first 14 options, things get much sketchier and more question marks arise. Trevor Megill, David Bednar, Kenley Jansen, Lucas Erceg, Pete Fairbanks and Alexis Diaz all reside between picks 133 to 152. Megill has dealt with some injury issues during the spring, Erceg is facing competition for saves from Carlos Estevez, Bednar was a disaster in 2025 and Diaz wasn’t much better.
After that you have Ryan Pressly, Jordan Romano, Justin Martinez, Kirby Yates and Estevez between picks 179 and 191. That’s not a terrible place to be shopping if you can pick the correct players.
Kyle Finnegan has surged up to pick 214 after re-signing with the Nationals, though he’ll probably end up closer to that min pick (168) than where he currently sits. After that, you’re really gambling on a player landing a role.
Comparing my rankings to the ADP list, here’s what stands out to me.
No surprise, but I like a lot of the top options. I’ve always been a big fan of Emmanuel Clase, though his dip in velocity during the postseason and during spring training does cause me some concern. Of those top four, the one that I think I like the most at cost is Devin Williams. Think he’s in the best situation of the bunch and as long as he stays healthy he’s going to put up elite numbers across the board.
I also like Raisel Iglesias in the next tier and could see myself pulling the trigger there if I don’t snag any of the top four options. I’m not a big believer in Ryan Helsley, but I’ll consider him at the right price. The same can be said for Mason Miller.
The first name that really pops as a value on my board is Tanner Scott. I don’t know if it’s the market simply not catching up to the fact that Dodgers’ skipper Dave Roberts said he’s going to see the bulk of the save chance, but he looks like a screaming value at the moment. He’s an elite closer pitching for the team that’s likely to win more games than any other in baseball. Even if he only winds up seeing 70-80% of the save chances, when a team is going to exceed 100 wins, that’s still plenty of opportunities. I’d much prefer that to someone who is seeing 90% of the chances on a 60 or 70 win team.
Andres Munoz is another player that I like quite a bit at his current cost. I’m highly intrigued by the new kick change that he has debuted during Cactus League action, as if he needed another weapon to generate more whiffs.
I appear to be significantly higher than the market on Ryan Pressly and have found myself winding up with him as my RP2 already a couple of times. I think that he’s going to get a decent leash in the ninth inning to begin the season and that the Cubs prefer Porter Hodge in more of that traditional fireman role in the eighth inning.
Ryan Walker I’m fine with at cost. He was just so dominant once he took over the Giants’ gig midway through the 2024 campaign that it’s hard to bet against him.
I’m out entirely on Jeff Hoffman at the moment. When two teams back out of contract agreements with you over failed physicals, it’s incredibly worrisome. There’s a chance that his shoulder holds up for the duration of the 2024 season and he performs as an elite closer for the Blue Jays. I’ll let someone else take the risk and beat me with him though.
After that, it gets pretty sketchy for me. My favorite options remaining are probably Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan, just because I have the most confidence in each of them keeping their roles. I’m not touching Felix Bautista coming back after a missed season and the early injury concerns in spring training on Trevor Megill are enough to push me out on him.
I actually like Aroldis Chapman as a dark horse to emerge as the closer with the Red Sox, though I think that they’ll start with Liam Hendriks in the role to open the season. Jordan Romano is somewhat intriguing if he makes it through the spring without any mentions of injury and his velocity looks good.
I think that Carlos Estevez keeps the role with the Royals as long as he avoids the injured list, but the spring injury notes don’t give me much confidence. Lucas Erceg is so good, it just seems like they want to be able to use him in the highest leverage situation, not dedicated to the ninth inning.
I have some early interest in David Robertson, thinking that he could potentially wind up with save chances wherever he ultimately signs. It’s getting late though and the fact that he’s still out there is worrisome. Perhaps a return to the Rangers?
If you’re forced to go even deeper on the list than that to find your second closer, good luck. You’ll probably be chasing saves every week during the season and will have to dedicate a significant portion of your FAAB budget to doing so.
Hopefully at some point in my ramblings here you were able to at least glean some valuable information that you can take with you when attempting to craft your draft plan for the upcoming season. If you perform the same types of exercises at every position, know the player pool forward and backwards and know in which pockets of the draft you’re more likely to target each position, then you’re already a few steps ahead of the competition and well on your way to competing for a league title.