Top 40 Dynasty First Basemen for 2025
George Bissell ranks the top 40 first basemen for dynasty leagues heading into 2025.
With less than 100 days left until Opening Day, it’s time for fantasy managers to start preparing for the impending 2025 campaign and beyond. Fantasy managers can find my complete Top 500 Dynasty Rankings for 2025 over at Rotoworld. They’ll continue to be updated weekly to reflect the latest offseason player movement. In the coming weeks, I’ll take a deeper dive into each individual position group here at The Buzz to provide dynasty managers with a 10,000-foot view of the landscape. Without further delay, let’s dive into the rankings.
1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
The cold corner landscape hasn’t changed much in recent years except for Guerrero Jr. further distancing himself from the rest of the position group by recording an astronomical .323/.396/.544 triple-slash line with 98 runs scored, 30 home runs, 103 RBI and two steals in 697 plate appearances. The 25-year-old fantasy superstar took his game to an even higher level during the second half of last year when he batted .376 with 16 big flies over his final 63 contests. Toronto’s franchise cornerstone appears on the verge of reaching free agency next offseason and should be highly motivated to tear the cover off the ball in his potential walk year. Look out.
2) Bryce Harper, Phillies
3) Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
As I wrote earlier this week for our rankings debate: It's not a Grand Canyon-sized divide, but I’m less bullish on Freeman from a raw projection standpoint than Guerrero Jr. and Harper heading into next season. Freeman remains a certifiable five-category impact fantasy stalwart as he enters the twilight of his remarkable career, but it feels like only a matter of time before he starts to lose ground to some of the younger stars at the position. Harper’s status as a generational talent and consistent 30-homer, 10-steal fantasy stalwart is enough to propel him past Freeman from a dynasty standpoint at this juncture.
4) Matt Olson, Braves
5) Pete Alonso, Free Agent
Olson and Alonso – who remains unsigned as of press time in late December – have settled in among the most reliable power sources in the entire fantasy landscape. Olson’s home run total plunged last year to 29 round-trippers after a career-best 54 the prior season. A quick glance under the hood reveals that his average exit velocity and barrel percentage didn’t collapse completely during last year’s decline, which makes it relatively easy to envision a return to the 30-homer mark. It feels inevitable that Alonso winds up back with the Mets at this late stage of the offseason, but his gargantuan raw power is going to play regardless of where he ultimately winds up.
6) Bryce Eldridge, Giants
If San Francisco returns to prominence in the next couple years, Eldridge will be one of the driving forces. The precocious 20-year-old burgeoning slugger, who achieved top-10 prospect status in my latest Top 500 Dynasty Rankings for Rotoworld. rocketed through four minor-league levels last year to finish on the doorstep of the majors, slashing .292/.374/.516 with 23 homers and six steals in 519 plate appearances. He’s showcased above-average natural hitting ability for a 6-foot-7 power-hitter and his size naturally leads to some truly stratospheric exit velocities. Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey has consistently told reporters this offseason that Eldridge won’t be rushed to the majors next year, so fantasy managers shouldn’t anticipate him arriving in San Francisco until after the All-Star break, if at all. He’s unlikely to steal more than a handful of bases, but that’s the only potential weakness in his fantasy game at this juncture of his development. He’s one of the most exciting prospects in the entire fantasy landscape entering the 2025 campaign.
7) Josh Naylor, Diamondbacks
The move to Chase Field, which has been middle-of-the-pack (14th out of 30 ballparks) from an overall park factors standpoint for left-handed hitters over the last three seasons, per Baseball Savant, (basically ever since they installed the humidor back in 2018) makes a repeat of last year’s career-high 31 homers seem virtually impossible. Especially since it’s been widely speculated (but not definitively proven from a statistical standpoint) that the Guardians inadvertently created a wind tunnel effect to right field last year by making alterations to Progressive Field. The move to Arizona figures to reduce Naylor’s overall power output, but he’s undeniably blossomed into a complete first baseman without any glaring weaknesses in his fantasy profile.
8) Triston Casas, Red Sox
After an injury-marred 2024 campaign, which included a four-month absence due to torn rib cartilage, Casas figures to finally show fantasy managers what he’s capable of over a full season. The 24-year-old seemed to trade some contact for over-the-fence pop when he was on the field last year, striking out nearly 32 percent of the time, while blasting 13 dingers in just 243 plate appearances. It’s a tradeoff fantasy managers will take as a palatable batting average in the .240 range with 30 round-trippers is a far more appealing outcome, especially if he’s going to bat cleanup for the Red Sox.
9) Vinnie Pasqantino, Royals
Pasquantino managed to stay mostly healthy last year for Kansas City, finishing with a .262/.315/.446 batting line with 64 runs scored, 19 home runs, 97 RBI and one steal in 554 plate appearances over 131 games. The 27-year-old offers the typical risk-reward adventure for fantasy managers as it’s easy to envision a scenario where his outstanding contact skills pair a near-elite batting average with 25-homer pop. It’ll take a launch angle tweak for him to take another step forward in the home run department, which would likely come at the expense of a few points in batting average. Regardless of what direction he chooses, he’s probably going to settle in as a borderline top 10 option for dynasty purposes for at least the next half-decade, if not longer.
10) Spencer Steer, Reds
Steer’s lofty ranking is based mostly on the strength of last year’s 20-homer, 25-steal campaign, which made him a top 100 overall fantasy contributor in most formats. The 27-year-old’s power-speed combo is extremely rare at the cold corner and he’s a decent bet to post 15-20 homers and 20-25 steals moving forward. It’s probably a mistake to completely overlook his second-half struggles after batting .198 with just five homers in his final 63 games, but he’ll continue to produce from a long-term power standpoint if he remains in Great American Ball Park.
11) Christian Walker, Astros
12) Cody Bellinger, Yankees
Fantasy managers can find my expanded thoughts from earlier this week on both Walker’s immediate outlook at Minute Maid Park in Houston and Bellinger’s future in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Simply put, Walker and Bellinger seem to have landed in optimal hitting environments to enhance their long-term fantasy appeal.
Walker has eclipsed 26 homers in four of the last five full seasons (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign) dating back to 2019. Fantasy managers should feel confident projecting Walker to get back to the 30-homer mark in his Astros debut while also chipping in borderline elite counting stats. He’s highly unlikely to reach double-digit stolen bases again, but looks like one of the safest four-category impact contributors in the fantasy landscape, even as he enters his mid-30’s.
It’s probably unrealistic to forecast Bellinger to reach the 30-homer plateau next season, but a return to the mid-20’s in the round-tripper department seems like a virtual lock at Yankee Stadium, which ranks third out of 30 ballparks over the past three seasons for left-handed home run power in Baseball Savant’s park factors. The dramatic shift from Wrigley Field’s power-suppressing environment for left-handed pop, which ranks seventh worst (23rd overall) during that same three-year span is a big deal.
13) Salvador Perez, Royals
Fantasy managers are almost certainly utilizing Perez at catcher, which is the reason he checks in so high at the cold corner. The 34-year-old ironman remains one of the most reliable 25-homer power sources in the fantasy landscape and has shown zero signs of decay as he enters his twilight years.
14) Nick Kurtz, Athletics
If your personal preference for dynasty prospects falls in the safer territory like a conservative mutual fund, Kurtz is your spirit animal. The fourth overall pick from the 2024 MLB Draft looked extremely impressive in his brief professional debut, batting .368/.520/1.283 with four homers and one steal in 50 plate appearances between Single-A Stockton and Double-A Midland, before continuing to turn heads with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. The 21-year-old’s combination of strong plate skills, ability to hit for average, and plus raw power give him a significantly higher floor than some of the other boom-or-bust prospects at the position. It wouldn’t be shocking if he jumped into the top 10 at the position by the end of the year.
15) Jac Caglianone, Royals
Caglianone’s unmatched raw power upside gives him a razor-thin edge over Isaac for the moment, but the question remains whether he’ll make enough contact at the highest level to blossom into an upper-echelon contributor. He’s not going to alleviate those concerns until he reaches the upper minors, and he’s going to get plenty of runway from a development standpoint, but it’s something to monitor heading into 2025. It’s relatively easy to envision Caglianone arriving in the big leagues as a corner infield option that provides a jolt in the home run department for fantasy managers without completely crushing your team’s batting average.
16) Xavier Isaac, Rays
Isaac’s stock has tumbled quite a bit last year after striking out 33 percent of the time in 435 plate appearances between High-A Bowling Green and Double-A Montgomery. It’s still too early to panic completely, and we’re inclined to give him a mulligan, especially since he’s coming off an 18-homer, 15-steal season. He’s only 21 years old entering next year and projects as a potential four-category impact fantasy contributor, if he manages to address his sudden contact issues. There’s a lot more risk in his long-term profile than previously anticipated, but Isaac still offers an extremely high fantasy ceiling and still has plenty of time to adjust in the upper minors.
17) Jake Burger, Rangers
Burger will open next season as the Rangers’ primary first baseman after the club elected to jettison Nathaniel Lowe to Washington shortly after his arrival in a Winter Meetings swap with Miami. The soon-to-be 29-year-old masher fell just shy of his second consecutive 30-homer campaign last year and has turned in near-carbon copy seasons the last two seasons between the White Sox and Marlins, batting .250/.305/.488 with 63 round-trippers and 156 RBI in 1,119 plate appearances during that span. He’s pretty much entrenched as a one-dimensional, power and counting stats fantasy contributor, but he’s poised to excel with the move to a veritable hitter's paradise in Globe Life Field, which Baseball Savant’s park factors data ranks as the fourth-best park for right-handed home run power over the last three years. Dynasty managers can safely lock in a 30-homer baseline moving forward, with the potential to get close to eclipsing the lofty 40-homer plateau. It also goes without saying that the Rangers' lineup is a massive upgrade from a supporting cast standpoint, which should help boost his runs scored and RBI totals as well.
18) Paul Goldschmidt, Yankees
The case for Goldschmidt rebounding in his Yankees debut, which I covered in greater detail earlier this week, is relatively straightforward. Here’s the quick version: He’s shown zero signs of breaking down physically and he’s still making hard contact at elite rates. The move to an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark in Yankee Stadium, which ranks 2nd out of 30 ballparks in Baseball Savant’s park factors for right-handed home run power over the past three seasons, raises his realistic over-the-fence power ceiling to the point that he’s a borderline top 10 option at the position from a re-draft perspective. He gets bumped down considerably in these rankings due to his advanced age, which will cause him to get overlooked in dynasty formats, but there’s zero reason to believe he won’t make an impact for fantasy managers in New York.
19) Deyvison De Los Santos, Marlins
Are you feeling lucky? If rostering Nick Kurtz is the equivalent of an index fund, De Los Santos is the quintessential high-risk derivatives swap. The 21-year-old masher’s all-or-nothing approach translated into a 40-homer campaign last year in the upper minors, which also carried an ugly 25 percent strikeout rate. That might appear palatable on the surface, but his hyper-aggressive mindset is likely to be exploited by big-league pitchers upon arrival. There’s zero doubt that he’s going to hit for a ton of power once he arrives on the major-league scene, and Miami’s front office hasn’t placed too many roadblocks in his path heading into the 2025 campaign. The fact that he’s probably going to be a complete batting average anchor puts a damper on his short-term fantasy appeal.
20) Ralphy Velazquez, Guardians
Velazquez won’t turn 20 years old until a month into the 2025 season and is coming off a decent full-season debut where he batted .231/.347/.385 with 11 homers and eight thefts in 453 plate appearances between High-A Lake County and Low-A Lynchburg.
21) Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Reds
I’m probably more bullish on Encarnacion-Strand than most fantasy analysts, but he’s one of the biggest unknowns out there from a projection standpoint after missing nearly the entire 2024 season recovering from surgery to repair ligament damage in his right wrist. The positive news here is that he looked healthy during an Arizona Fall League stint and should have a normal offseason heading into spring training. He figures to open next year as Cincinnati's primary first baseman under new manager Terry Francona and still boasts 30-homer upside in a full-time role. The 25-year-old former top prospect’s contact issues figure to persist into the future, but if he can keep that number slightly under 30 percent, he's going to make an impact for fantasy managers.
22) Michael Toglia, Rockies
Toglia exploded onto fantasy manager’s radar screens last year when he batted .218 (87-for-399) with 25 homers and 10 steals in 116 games for Colorado in his full-season debut. The 26-year-old’s acquisition cost is far from exorbitant, especially in dynasty leagues, considering he’ll call Coors Field home for the immediate future. The inflated 33 percent strikeout rate at the highest level is a clear harbinger that he’s going to be a complete anchor in the batting average department. That doesn’t mean he’s incapable of carving out a Mark Reynolds or Chris Carter type career arch where he routinely blasts 30 homers with a batting average below the Mendoza Line.
23) Michael Busch, Cubs
My close friend and colleague Dave Shovein is a tad more optimistic on Busch heading into next season, which does make me wonder if I’m wrong in the belief that there isn’t a massive developmental breakthrough looming here. I’m a bit skeptical that Busch reaches the 20-homer plateau for the second consecutive season and takes a marginal step forward in the batting average department, especially since Wrigley Field isn’t exactly an ideal hitting environment for left-handed sluggers.
24) Kyle Manzardo, Guardians*
Technically, Manzardo will be utility-only for fantasy purposes at the outset of the 2025 season since he made only six appearances at first base this past season during his lackluster big-league debut where he finished with a pedestrian .703 OPS and five homers in 156 plate appearances. He showed some signs of life down the home stretch and during Cleveland’s extended postseason run as he seemed to settle into his newfound role as the club’s primary designated hitter. The 24-year-old former top prospect is probably going to strike out more than fantasy managers want to see, which limits his potential upside, but if he can cut back on his swing-and-miss tendencies, everything else is there for him to evolve into a reliable 20-homer threat and a consistent four-category fantasy contributor.
25) Yandy Díaz, Rays
Díaz was unable to sustain the huge leap his numbers made during the 2023 campaign when he belted a career-high 22 round-trippers, while also recording a sublime .330 batting average. The 33-year-old’s impressive all-around offensive ability figures to age gracefully, but fantasy managers should hedge their over-the-fence power projections in the 15-18 range as opposed to forecasting a return to the 20-homer plateau.
26) Luis Arraez, Padres
27) Colt Keith, Tigers*
Fantasy managers are utilizing Arraez and Keith at second base next season, but both will remain first base-eligible moving forward. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris told reporters following the club’s decision to sign veteran second baseman Gleyber Torres that Keith would move to first base next season where he’ll presumably split time with Spencer Torkelson.
28) Tyler Black, Brewers
Black has virtually nothing left to prove in the upper minors at this stage of his development, but didn’t end up getting an extended look last year with Milwaukee when he hit .204 (10-for-49) with three steals in 18 games. The 24-year-old’s outstanding plate discipline might not fully translate to the big leagues, but his power-speed combination is going to make him fantasy-relevant once he gets a real opportunity. It wouldn’t be shocking if he followed in the mold of a Spencer Steer as a cheap power-speed sparkplug for fantasy purposes.
29) Tyler Locklear, Mariners
30) Zach Dezenzo, Astros
Locklear and Dezenzo reached the big leagues last year but wound up struggling and failed to establish themselves as everyday options with Seattle and Houston, respectively. They both showed some promise in the upper minors and were highly regarded prospects following their collegiate careers. I’m more of a Dezenzo believer, especially if he’s truly going to embrace a multi-positional utility role, but he looked a bit overmatched last year in his first taste of the big leagues.
31) Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles
The “Walltimore” era coming to a close next season at Camden Yards is going to benefit Mountcastle more than almost anyone else moving forward. The 27-year-old’s power dipped back into the mid-teen’s the past two seasons after posting 33 and 22 round-trippers, respectively, the prior two years. He’s a perfectly viable corner infield option in extremely deep mixed leagues, but we’re not anticipating a sudden step forward at this stage of his career.
32) Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
It’s been a long, strange ride with Torkelson over the past few years. He’s completed the entire cycle from extremely hyped top prospect with lofty expectations to underachieving bust. This ranking acknowledges his persistent struggles at the highest level over the last three years, while also not completely closing the door on the possibility that he finally puts it together. We’ve seen less heralded prospects make the leap before, so we still must hedge here. It might take a change of scenery to make it happen, if at all, but at 25 years old, he’s still going to get plenty of opportunities over the next few seasons.
33) Nathaniel Lowe, Nationals
34) Spencer Horwitz, Pirates
35) Jonathan Aranda, Rays
A pair of my personal favorite sleeper candidates. Horwitz will take over as Pittsburgh’s everyday first baseman next season showcased exceptional plate skills and blasted 12 round-trippers in 381 plate appearances last year for Toronto in his first taste of the big leagues. He’ll go through a bit of an adjustment period as he acclimates to everyday life at the highest level, and faces NL pitching for the first time, but he projects as a 15-20 home run threat that also pairs a .260-range batting average with decent counting stats as a middle-of-the-order mainstay for the Pirates.
Aranda’s ability to make hard contact (11.2 percent barrels per plate appearance) and pull-heavy approach (51.5 percent) are poised to make him an impact fantasy contributor next season when the Rays relocate to Steinbrenner Field, which has graded out as an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark for left-handed power. It’s a perfect storm of environmental factors coming together that give Aranda a real shot at mixed-league relevance next year. He’s the perfect low-risk lottery ticket for dynasty managers on the chance that his pull-heavy tendencies result in a legitimate 25-plus homer fantasy breakthrough.
36) Rhys Hoskins, Brewers
37) Jake Cronenworth, Padres
38) Luis Merejo, Guardians
Merejo caught fire during the second half of last year at Low-A Lynchburg, hitting .282/.372/.466 with three homers and three steals in 121 plate appearances. The 18-year-old emerging slugger is several hyperspace jumps from the majors, but he’s a name to watch next year for dynasty purposes.
39) Nolan Schanuel, Angels
40) Tre’ Morgan, Rays
Morgan shined during the Arizona Fall League, batting .338/.391/.500 with one homer in 92 plate appearances after rising through three levels last season in Tampa Bay’s system to finish the year at Double-A Montgomery. The 22-year-old offers some emerging power potential, and his athleticism gives him a shot at making an impact in the stolen base category.