Rankings Debate: Starting Pitcher

George Bissell and Dave Shovein debate their fantasy rankings for

We made it. With spring training underway, we decided to roll out another edition of our fantasy rankings debate series with an expanded look at some of the notable differences of opinion at starting pitcher. Differences of opinion are healthy. This exercise is designed to give fantasy managers a peek behind the curtain at our internal thought process and help us clearly explain the rationale behind out statistical forecast and outlook. If you’ve enjoyed this edition, make sure to check out the other installments of this series.

The Buzz — 2025 Fantasy Baseball Preview — Rankings Debates

Catcher: Willson Contreras, Logan O’Hoppe and Joey Bart

First Base: Freddie Freeman, Michael Busch and Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Second Base: Jordan Westburg, Brandon Lowe and Jackson Holliday

Third Base: Royce Lewis, Junior Caminero, Isaac Paredes and Eugenio Suárez

Shortstop: Masyn Winn and Xavier Edwards

Outfield: Mike Trout, Bryan Reynolds, Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena

Without further delay, let’s dive into the debates which include Aaron Nola, Bowden Francis, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan, Walker Buehler and Eury Pérez.

Aaron Nola, Phillies

2025 Rankings: Bissell (29), Shovein (12)

While George is a bit down on Nola compared to the overall market, he’s a player that I’m much higher on than most. As I alluded to in the ADP breakdown for the position, Nola has logged 180 or more innings in each of his last six full seasons (2020 excluded) and hit 193 2/3 or higher in five of those. The elevated home run rate has caused his ERA to bounce around a bit over the years, but he’ll give you a strong WHIP and he has averaged 218 strikeouts over the last six seasons. I don’t think he’s getting nearly the credit that he deserves. He’s going off the board at pick 88.6 on average with a min pick over the last couple of weeks at pick 75. I have no issues going near that min pick and locking him in as my SP2 at the end of the fifth or the beginning of the sixth round depending on how the rest of the draft falls to me and where my other targets end up being. – Dave Shovein

I’m not convinced that I’m authoring any sort of a hot take here with Nola. His durability and stability, which continue to be the biggest drivers of his fantasy value, remain his signature calling cards. He’s eclipsed 180 innings during six consecutive full seasons dating back to 2018 and seems like a virtual lock to make 30 starts annually. I’m simply less optimistic that he’s getting anywhere close to ace-levels again from a strikeout standpoint due to a linear decline from a near-30 percent strikeout rate just a few years ago to fewer than 25 percent last season. There’s a case for putting Nola a few spots higher given his ironman status, but I’d rather take a shot on the upside of a Tanner Bibee, Bailey Ober or Hunter Greene at this point. You might even be able to talk me into a Grayson Rodriguez or Spencer Schwellenbach. With the starting pitching talent pool seeming to expand every year, I’d rather take a higher-upside arm in the early rounds with the understanding that the replacement-level arms have risen to the point that I’m not worried about injuries or ineffectiveness. – George Bissell

Bowden Francis, Blue Jays

2025 Rankings: Bissell (63), Shovein (16)

George came in slightly above the overall market on Francis, the reason that there’s such a huge discrepancy in our rankings is because of just how high I had him up there. If you checked out during the second half of the 2024 season, you may have missed just how dominant Francis was once he was finally given a full-time shot in the Blue Jays’ rotation – going 4-2 with a 1.53 ERA and unfathomable 0.53 WHIP and a 56/7 K/BB ratio over 59 innings in nine starts after joining the rotation on August 7. He’s obviously not going to continue at that level and flirt with a no-hitter every time out like he did in 2024, but there’s nothing in the skills profile that leads me to believe he can’t be an elite starting pitcher. The biggest concern here is going to be the jump in workload after throwing just 123 innings between the Jays and Triple-A Buffalo in 2024. The good news is that you don’t have to take him anywhere near the cost of SP13 as he sits as the SP67 by ADP way down at pick 232. Crushing late round SP picks like this is how leagues are won. – Dave Shovein

The arrow is clearly pointing skyward for Francis this spring after adding a sinker in addition to throwing his slider and splitter more than his curveball fueled his dominant nine-start stretch to close last season. I’ve always fancied myself as a truther in the Francis department, but I’m skeptical the strikeout upside is there to forecast an ascent into the top-20 range at starting pitcher for fantasy purposes. His strikeout rate was only 26.5 percent during the final two months last year, which doesn’t exactly scream fantasy ace, especially since most projection system have at least 25-30 starters forecasted to eclipse that mark. I can envision a scenario where Francis finishes as a top-40 caliber fantasy starter, but I’m not pushing him much higher at this juncture. – George Bissell

Justin Verlander, Giants

2025 Rankings: Bissell (92), Shovein (25)

This is the type of bold prediction that haters are going to bookmark and call me on at the end of the year if it doesn’t work out. I get that Verlander is going to pitch the 2025 season at 42-years-old and that the numbers he put up with the Astros in 2024 look brutal at a glance. He was effective in 2024 though before the neck injury ultimately derailed his season. Through his first eight starters, JV posted a 3.26 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 44/15 K/BB ratio over 47 frames before experiencing the neck tightness. He then struggled through a pair of starts before hitting the injured list for an extended period and was simply never the same afterwards. While that early sample isn’t quite vintage Verlander, it’s still pretty darn good. His biggest issue has always been surrendering the long ball, and the move away from Minute Maid Park and the Crawford boxes to the vast expanse at Oracle Park in San Francisco should make a major difference in that capacity. Verlander is a very prideful guy and is intent on pitching until he gets his 300^th win. He has also changed his off-season workout regimen and for the first time in his career he didn’t stop throwing at all over the winter. It’s unlikely he returns to his previous highs and challengers for the National League Cy Young award, but he’s absolutely going to surprise people and deliver a substantial profit from his current draft cost at ADP 373 as the SP107. – Dave Shovein

I’m just not seeing the volume for Verlander to drive the type of astronomical ranking that Dave envisions from a projection standpoint. It’s been an encouraging spring so far with Verlander’s fastball topping out at 95.97 mph last week in his Cactus League debut. The 42-year-old veteran is finally starting to tinker with his pitch mix this spring, reportedly making a grip adjustment to give his curveball a new more sweeping look to pair with his four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. The move to pitcher-friendly Oracle Park is undoubtedly a positive from a run-prevention standpoint. However, the extremely low odds of reversing a four-year decline in the strikeout rate department in addition to his omnipresent durability concerns make him one of the riskier picks among late-round starting pitchers. Simply put, I’d rather roll the dice on a handful of the younger alternatives like Kris Bubic, Reid Detmers, Ben Brown and Quinn Mathews in the late stages of drafts where Verlander is currently going, on average, in NFBC drafts (463rd overall). I’m not convinced the strikeout upside and volume will be there, even if Verlander experiences a renaissance in the twilight of his remarkable career. – George Bissell

Robbie Ray, Giants

2025 Rankings: Bissell (44), Shovein (20)

The last time that we saw a fully healthy Robbie Ray coming into the season was 2023 – where his ADP in NFBC Main Event drafts resided just inside the top 100 picks overall. So why is he falling another 50 picks this time? He put the Tommy John surgery behind him and returned in the second half of the 2024 campaign, and while there was a bit of rust, he still registered a 1.14 WHIP and a 12.6 K/9 over 30 2/3 innings in his seven starts. He’s still pitching for the Giants – in a tremendous pitcher’s park – and his strikeout upside is almost unmatched in this area of the draft. I don’t know if people are simply doubting his health or believe that he’s going to suddenly fall off in his age-33 season, but as things currently stand the veteran southpaw looks like one of the shrewdest buys on the entire draft board. – Dave Shovein

I don’t really have a strong counter to Dave’s ranking except that I’m a bit higher on some of both younger and veteran arms in that range of my rankings like Grayson Rodriguez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Sonny Gray, Jack Flaherty, Hunter Brown and Jared Jones. The strikeout upside is obviously off the charts and the addition of a brand-new changeup modeled after Tarik Skubal is extremely intriguing. He’s going to move up my rankings during our next update, but I’m hesitant to push him into the top-20 range for fantasy purposes. It might wind up being a mistake, but there are so many starters that I’ve developed an affinity for in his draft range that I don’t mind if someone else is more aggressive here. – George Bissell

Spencer Strider, Braves

2025 Rankings: Bissell (19), Shovein (47)

As someone who pulled the trigger on Spencer Strider in the first round of one of my biggest drafts from the 2024 season, I hold no ill will or resentment towards the Braves’ star right-hander. My rankings don’t even hate on him too much compared to the market, as I have him as the SP47 and he’s SP40 by ADP. This is just a case of George being too aggressive in my belief. There’s no denying the talent or the skills with Strider, when he takes the mound, he’s going to be awesome. My concern is with his workload. The Braves have already stated that he won’t be ready for Opening Day and are tentatively saying that he could return in late April. Even once he is ready to go, expect the Braves to treat him with extreme caution and carefully monitor his innings throughout the season. I’ve got him working 114 innings in my projections – which may even end up being too optimistic – and he still grades out as just the SP47. That value is probably higher when you include the replacement value that you could find for the first month of the season, but I simply can’t justify getting him up inside the top 20 options at the position. – Dave Shovein

Dave basically laid out my argument for Strider’s relatively aggressive ranking. Here’s an oversimplification: I’m forecasting 100 innings maximum from Strider over the final four-to-five months of the year in tandem with at least four-to-six weeks of replacement-level production from late-round picks or waiver wire claims will net out to a top-20 range starting pitcher for fantasy purposes. There’s some risk here that Strider’s stuff doesn’t bounce-back to pre-surgery levels right away, especially since he’s highly unlikely to pitch in Grapefruit League action this spring, but I’m confident he’s going to pile up strikeouts once he does return. If you have any confidence in identifying at least one or two late-round breakouts, Strider makes a ton of sense from a roster construction standpoint. – George Bissell

Shane McClanahan, Rays

2025 Rankings: Bissell (17), Shovein (95)

Unlike Spencer Strider, where I was close to the market value and George was much higher, I’m significantly under the market on McClanahan while George is significantly higher, causing a major chasm between our rankings. Perhaps I wind up looking like the fool on this one, I just can’t invest that heavily in a pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery that didn’t make it back before the previous season ended. It’s encouraging that he’s already throwing bullpen sessions in spring training, but it’s going to take some time for him to shake the rust off – having not pitched in a big-league contest since August of 2023. I also expect the Rays to proceed cautiously with their prized left-hander and I’d be shocked if he exceeded even 135 innings in his first season back. I’m down on the Rays as a whole, so if their offense isn’t providing support and McClanahan isn’t working deep into games, he’s not going to be an asset in wins and pitching in a minor league ballpark is going to exacerbate his home run issues. If he makes it through the season without any issues, I’ll be interested in buying back in for 2026, but anywhere near his current draft cost (ADP 122) I just don’t see him returning a profit this season. – Dave Shovein

McClanahan’s stuff has seemingly returned to pre-Tommy John surgery levels based on his early spring performances in Grapefruit League action and it’s fair to question whether the volume will be there to drive this lofty ranking. There’s been zero indication that the 27-year-ol former fantasy ace will have significant workload restrictions in his return from Tommy John surgery and the league-wide decline in starting pitcher workloads reduces the impact of a diminished innings total. Simply put, I’m forecasting McClanahan to pitch at an elite level when he’s out there and I’d feel comfortable projecting at least 120 innings as a reasonable baseline. There is some risk involved with putting McClanahan in the top-20 range at starting pitcher for fantasy purposes, but I’m rolling the dice on a previously-elite talent and hoping that the replacement level options that I slot in during any absence helps drive this ranking. – George Bissell

Walker Buehler, Red Sox

2025 Rankings: Bissell (65), Shovein (NR)

I’ve been an optimist on Buehler for the last few months since taking a deeper dive into his postseason performance. His sudden resurgence was powered by adding nearly two inches of rise to his four-seam fastball, which led to the pitch dropping less on its way to the plate and immediately translated into a significant uptick in swinging strikes from opposing hitters. It also stands out that his curveball and sweeper were back to looking like the hard-biting swing-and-miss offerings we were accustomed to seeing pre-Tommy John surgery. Was it a small sample mirage? That’s the risk here. It remains a bit unclear whether he can replicate any of it during his Red Sox debut. This ranking represents a bit of a hedge since I’m willing to slightly buy into the idea that he can dial it up again even further removed from another Tommy John surgery. – George Bissell

This one hurts me to my core. I have been a Buehler truther for years and suffered through all his dismal performances during the 2024 season as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. Being another year removed from the operation will help, I just don’t see it as being the magic elixir that cures everything that ails him. The main thing that I’ll be monitoring here is Buehler’s velocity during spring training. It was down on every one of his pitches last year, which I believe was a major contributor to his struggles. If he can get his fastball back up to 96 and shows an increase on his secondary offerings as well, I could see moving him up my rankings a bit and taking a chance on him in the later rounds. For now, though, I’ll let other fantasy managers beat me with him as there are too many other pitchers that I prefer around ADP 250. – Dave Shovein

Eury Perez, Marlins

2025 Rankings: Bissell (74), Shovein (NR)

This one is fascinating to me. The market is acting as if Perez doesn’t even exist. He’s the SP138 by ADP, residing near the bottom of the list at pick 450 overall. He didn’t crack my top 125 SP that we released on the site earlier this week, and I had him right at SP138 on my list as well. George sees something that we don’t though as he popped at SP74 on his initial rankings. I think what it comes down to with Perez is simply how many innings we project him for. My initial projections have him pitching well when he takes the mound in 2025, but I only have him down for 77 frames total. If I bumped that up into the 120 range, he would surge up my list inside the top 80 options at the position, I just don’t see how that’s possible. The most recent update that we received is that Perez is targeting a mid-season return to the Marlins’ rotation and with the team unlikely to be in the playoff hunt, there’s no reason for them to push the supremely talented 21-year-old right-hander. He’ll be an asset in all fantasy leagues once he finally does return to the Marlins’ rotation and in leagues that have IL spots where you can stash him and take advantage, by all means look his way in the later rounds of drafts. I just can’t justify tying up a valuable bench spot for the first four months of the season on him. – Dave Shovein

I’ll contrast Dave’s (practical) statistical-driven approach to Pérez’s immediate fantasy appeal by simply noting that he’s going to be worth rostering and starting for fantasy purposes, regardless of format, when he takes the mound for Miami. The exact timeline for his season debut remains murky and I’m with him that forecasting anything over 100 innings seems like a non-starter. However, I’m confident the quality of the innings he works will make up for the lack of volume and make him at least a back-end option for fantasy managers, especially in deeper formats. There are some diminishing returns to stashing a player that won’t contribute and eats up an injured list roster spot in shallow mixers, but Pérez showed during his impressive debut prior to last year’s Tommy John surgery that he can make a significant impact. I’d prefer his strikeout potential and ratio boosting capabilities to some of the more unproven options at his current acquisition cost, even if the workload concerns tamp down his realistic ceiling. – George Bissell